Cases · Tools
Cut a supplier
Pick a stage of one of the ten chains and an exporter, and cut its exports: who loses what share of their supply, who could fill the gap, and what passes one stage down the chain. First-round arithmetic on 2024 trade shares, not a forecast.
- 89stages to choose from
- 2024the year of the shares
- 25exporters of this stage listed
Lithium-ion batteries and electric cars · S2 · Lithium hydroxide
Cut the exports of China in Lithium hydroxide (Lithium-ion batteries and electric cars, stage 2) and follow the shortfall to the importers and one stage down the chain.
Who loses what share of their supply: Lithium hydroxide, 2024
- World exports cut76.7%
- Importers with over a quarter at risk18
| Importer | At risk, share of its imports | Its other suppliers would ship |
|---|---|---|
| 100% | none | |
| 99.8% | +52,000% | |
| 94.8% | +1,811% | |
| 90% | +900% | |
| 84.2% | +532% | |
| 83.9% | +522% | |
| 81.8% | +447% | |
| 80.6% | +415% | |
| 79.3% | +384% | |
| 77.7% | +347% | |
| 71.1% | +244% | |
| 49.4% | +97% |
* Did not file this period: its imports are seen through its partners’ reports.
Who could fill the gap: Russia, 100% of its imports
It buys from no other supplier in the table: nothing fills the gap in the first round.
The largest other exporters, by share of world exports
- Chile 10.2%
- United States 6.9%
- Australia 3.6%
- Russia 0.71%
- Korea 0.49%
One stage down the chain
Cathode active material
Upper bound (100% pass-through, no use share). This stage feeds only this chain, so the chain file gives it no use share and the whole shortfall passes down.
55.7% of world cathode active material exports at risk in the first round, summed over the 15 large exporters with an exposure upstream. The 8 listed below carry 55.7%.
| Exporter | Its exposure upstream | World exports at risk |
|---|---|---|
| Korea | 83.9% | 47.2% |
| Japan | 84.2% | 7.7% |
| United States | 17.6% | 0.3% |
| Taiwan | 79.3% | 0.17% |
| UK | 22.7% | 0.11% |
| Sweden | 94.8% | 0.06% |
| India | 39.4% | 0.06% |
| Canada | 25.1% | 0.04% |
An exporter of the next stage loses its share of world exports × its own exposure upstream (× the use share). Exporters on a closed route lose their own exports × the cut. Exposure upstream is the share of its imported lithium hydroxide that came from the closed supplier, not of all the lithium hydroxide it uses: where most are made at home (Japan, Korea, Germany for car parts), it overstates the risk.
First-round arithmetic on trade shares, not a forecast: an importer’s exposure is its import share from the shocked suppliers × the cut. No stocks, no new suppliers, no price changes.
Suppliers are read from the flows the map stores for the stage: each importer’s ten largest suppliers and every flow above 0.05% of world trade; the rest are “smaller suppliers”. The next stage and the use share come from the chain file.