Cases · Tools
Cut a supplier
Pick a stage of one of the ten chains and an exporter, and cut its exports: who loses what share of their supply, who could fill the gap, and what passes one stage down the chain. First-round arithmetic on 2024 trade shares, not a forecast.
- 89stages to choose from
- 2024the year of the shares
- 25exporters of this stage listed
Gas and minerals to fertilisers and crops · S1 · Natural gas
Cut the exports of Australia in Natural gas (Gas and minerals to fertilisers and crops, stage 1) and follow the shortfall to the importers and one stage down the chain.
Who loses what share of their supply: Natural gas, 2024
- World exports cut13.6%
- Importers with over a quarter at risk3
| Importer | At risk, share of its imports | Its other suppliers would ship |
|---|---|---|
| 83.1% | +489% | |
| 39.9% | +66% | |
| 38.8% | +63% | |
| 24.5% | +32% | |
| 22.9% | +30% | |
| 20.3% | +26% | |
| 13.4% | +16% | |
| 3% | +3% | |
| 0% | – | |
| 0% | – | |
| 0% | – | |
| 0% | – |
Who could fill the gap: Malaysia, 83.1% of its imports
The suppliers it already buys from, in proportion to their shares: each would have to ship 489% more. Share now, then the part of the gap it would take:
- United States 9.4% +46.1 pp
- Mozambique 4.2% +20.7 pp
- Papua New Guinea 1.8% +8.8 pp
- Indonesia 1.5% +7.5 pp
The largest other exporters, by share of world exports
- United States 13.2% · already a supplier
- Qatar 12.6%
- Russia 11.1%
- Norway 7.2%
- Algeria 4.9%
One stage down the chain
Ammonia
0.09% of world ammonia exports at risk in the first round, summed over the 2 large exporters with an exposure upstream. The 8 listed below carry 0.09%.
| Exporter | Its exposure upstream | World exports at risk |
|---|---|---|
| Malaysia | 83.1% | 0.08% |
| China | 22.9% | 0.01% |
| Trinidad and Tobago | not a large importer | – |
| Saudi Arabia | not a large importer | – |
| Indonesia | not a large importer | – |
| Oman | not a large importer | – |
| Algeria | not a large importer | – |
| Russia | not a large importer | – |
An exporter of the next stage loses its share of world exports × its own exposure upstream (× the use share). Exporters on a closed route lose their own exports × the cut. Exposure upstream is the share of its imported natural gas that came from the closed supplier, not of all the natural gas it uses: where most are made at home (Japan, Korea, Germany for car parts), it overstates the risk.
First-round arithmetic on trade shares, not a forecast: an importer’s exposure is its import share from the shocked suppliers × the cut. No stocks, no new suppliers, no price changes.
Suppliers are read from the flows the map stores for the stage: each importer’s ten largest suppliers and every flow above 0.05% of world trade; the rest are “smaller suppliers”. The next stage and the use share come from the chain file.