Cases · Tools
Cut a supplier
Pick a stage of one of the ten chains and an exporter, and cut its exports: who loses what share of their supply, who could fill the gap, and what passes one stage down the chain. First-round arithmetic on 2024 trade shares, not a forecast.
- 89stages to choose from
- 2024the year of the shares
- 25exporters of this stage listed
Gas and minerals to fertilisers and crops · S4 · Wheat, maize and soybeans
Cut the exports of Brazil in Wheat, maize and soybeans (Gas and minerals to fertilisers and crops, stage 4) and follow the shortfall to the importers and one stage down the chain.
Who loses what share of their supply: Wheat, maize and soybeans, 2024
- World exports cut34.4%
- Importers with over a quarter at risk10
| Importer | At risk, share of its imports | Its other suppliers would ship |
|---|---|---|
| 80.3% | +408% | |
| 65.6% | +190% | |
| 52.9% | +113% | |
| 48.3% | +93% | |
| 37.3% | +59% | |
| 36.4% | +57% | |
| 34.3% | +52% | |
| 32.7% | +49% | |
| 27.4% | +38% | |
| 26.2% | +35% | |
| 22.4% | +29% | |
| 22% | +28% |
* Did not file this period: its imports are seen through its partners’ reports.
Who could fill the gap: Iran, 80.3% of its imports
The suppliers it already buys from, in proportion to their shares: each would have to ship 408% more. Share now, then the part of the gap it would take:
- Canada 12.5% +51.1 pp
- Romania 5.6% +22.7 pp
- Türkiye 1.1% +4.5 pp
- Smaller suppliers 0.5% +2 pp
The largest other exporters, by share of world exports
- United States 22.6%
- Ukraine 7.1%
- Argentina 6.9%
- Canada 4.8% · already a supplier
- Russia 3.9%
First-round arithmetic on trade shares, not a forecast: an importer’s exposure is its import share from the shocked suppliers × the cut. No stocks, no new suppliers, no price changes.
Suppliers are read from the flows the map stores for the stage: each importer’s ten largest suppliers and every flow above 0.05% of world trade; the rest are “smaller suppliers”. The next stage and the use share come from the chain file.