Cases · Tools
Cut a supplier
Pick a stage of one of the ten chains and an exporter, and cut its exports: who loses what share of their supply, who could fill the gap, and what passes one stage down the chain. First-round arithmetic on 2024 trade shares, not a forecast.
- 89stages to choose from
- 2024the year of the shares
- 25exporters of this stage listed
Lithium-ion batteries and electric cars · S3 · Anode graphite (artificial)
Cut the exports of China in Anode graphite (artificial) (Lithium-ion batteries and electric cars, stage 3) and follow the shortfall to the importers and one stage down the chain.
Who loses what share of their supply: Anode graphite, 2024
- World exports cut59.7%
- Importers with over a quarter at risk25
| Importer | At risk, share of its imports | Its other suppliers would ship |
|---|---|---|
| 99.2% | +12,731% | |
| 98% | +4,873% | |
| 94.9% | +1,864% | |
| 94.8% | +1,816% | |
| 94.4% | +1,681% | |
| 88.8% | +794% | |
| 79.1% | +378% | |
| 75.9% | +315% | |
| 74% | +285% | |
| 69.3% | +226% | |
| 65.9% | +193% | |
| 65.4% | +189% |
* Did not file this period: its imports are seen through its partners’ reports.
Who could fill the gap: Iran, 99.2% of its imports
The suppliers it already buys from, in proportion to their shares: each would have to ship 12,731% more. Share now, then the part of the gap it would take:
- Türkiye 0.73% +92.5 pp
- Smaller suppliers 0.05% +6.7 pp
The largest other exporters, by share of world exports
- Japan 6.7%
- Germany 6.2%
- United States 5.7%
- Korea 4.6%
- France 3.2%
One stage down the chain
Lithium-ion cells and packs
7.5% of world lithium-ion cells and packs exports at risk in the first round, summed over the 22 large exporters with an exposure upstream. The 8 listed below carry 6.9%.
| Exporter | Its exposure upstream | World exports at risk |
|---|---|---|
| Hungary | 94.9% | 1.7% |
| Poland | 74% | 1.5% |
| United States | 65.4% | 1.2% |
| Korea | 65.9% | 0.85% |
| Japan | 58.4% | 0.62% |
| Malaysia | 94.4% | 0.43% |
| Czechia | 50.7% | 0.29% |
| Vietnam | 69.3% | 0.29% |
An exporter of the next stage loses its share of world exports × its own exposure upstream (× the use share). Exporters on a closed route lose their own exports × the cut. Exposure upstream is the share of its imported anode graphite that came from the closed supplier, not of all the anode graphite it uses: where most are made at home (Japan, Korea, Germany for car parts), it overstates the risk.
First-round arithmetic on trade shares, not a forecast: an importer’s exposure is its import share from the shocked suppliers × the cut. No stocks, no new suppliers, no price changes.
Suppliers are read from the flows the map stores for the stage: each importer’s ten largest suppliers and every flow above 0.05% of world trade; the rest are “smaller suppliers”. The next stage and the use share come from the chain file.