Cases · Tools
Cut a supplier
Pick a stage of one of the ten chains and an exporter, and cut its exports: who loses what share of their supply, who could fill the gap, and what passes one stage down the chain. First-round arithmetic on 2024 trade shares, not a forecast.
- 89stages to choose from
- 2024the year of the shares
- 25exporters of this stage listed
Lithium-ion batteries and electric cars · S4 · Lithium-ion cells and packs
Cut the exports of China in Lithium-ion cells and packs (Lithium-ion batteries and electric cars, stage 4) and follow the shortfall to the importers and one stage down the chain.
Who loses what share of their supply: Lithium-ion cells and packs, 2024
- World exports cut60.2%
- Importers with over a quarter at risk35
| Importer | At risk, share of its imports | Its other suppliers would ship |
|---|---|---|
| 97.1% | +3,324% | |
| 95.4% | +2,097% | |
| 92.8% | +1,293% | |
| 91.2% | +1,042% | |
| 90.9% | +996% | |
| 85.3% | +582% | |
| 85.2% | +576% | |
| 83.3% | +500% | |
| 82% | +454% | |
| 81% | +425% | |
| 80.7% | +419% | |
| 80.6% | +416% |
* Did not file this period: its imports are seen through its partners’ reports.
Who could fill the gap: Saudi Arabia, 97.1% of its imports
The suppliers it already buys from, in proportion to their shares: each would have to ship 3,324% more. Share now, then the part of the gap it would take:
- United States 0.58% +19.3 pp
- Smaller suppliers 2.3% +77.8 pp
The largest other exporters, by share of world exports
- Poland 6.2%
- United States 5.8% · already a supplier
- Hungary 5.6%
- Korea 4%
- Japan 3.3%
One stage down the chain
Battery-electric and plug-in cars
40.7% of world battery-electric and plug-in cars exports at risk in the first round, summed over the 23 large exporters with an exposure upstream. The 8 listed below carry 34%.
| Exporter | Its exposure upstream | World exports at risk |
|---|---|---|
| Germany | 57.4% | 13.2% |
| Korea | 85.2% | 5.4% |
| Japan | 77% | 5% |
| United States | 69.2% | 3.5% |
| Spain | 55.4% | 2% |
| Sweden | 64.7% | 1.9% |
| UK | 60.8% | 1.6% |
| Czechia | 58.6% | 1.4% |
An exporter of the next stage loses its share of world exports × its own exposure upstream (× the use share). Exporters on a closed route lose their own exports × the cut. Exposure upstream is the share of its imported lithium-ion cells and packs that came from the closed supplier, not of all the lithium-ion cells and packs it uses: where most are made at home (Japan, Korea, Germany for car parts), it overstates the risk.
First-round arithmetic on trade shares, not a forecast: an importer’s exposure is its import share from the shocked suppliers × the cut. No stocks, no new suppliers, no price changes.
Suppliers are read from the flows the map stores for the stage: each importer’s ten largest suppliers and every flow above 0.05% of world trade; the rest are “smaller suppliers”. The next stage and the use share come from the chain file.