Cases · Tools
Cut a supplier
Pick a stage of one of the ten chains and an exporter, and cut its exports: who loses what share of their supply, who could fill the gap, and what passes one stage down the chain. First-round arithmetic on 2024 trade shares, not a forecast.
- 89stages to choose from
- 2024the year of the shares
- 25exporters of this stage listed
Oil and gas to plastics · S6 · Car tyres
Cut the exports of China in Car tyres (Oil and gas to plastics, stage 6) and follow the shortfall to the importers and one stage down the chain.
Who loses what share of their supply: Car tyres, 2024
- World exports cut19.5%
- Importers with over a quarter at risk13
| Importer | At risk, share of its imports | Its other suppliers would ship |
|---|---|---|
| 97% | +3,279% | |
| 71.4% | +250% | |
| 67.4% | +207% | |
| 49.2% | +97% | |
| 45.4% | +83% | |
| 43.5% | +77% | |
| 38.9% | +64% | |
| 38% | +61% | |
| 36.3% | +57% | |
| 33.1% | +49% | |
| 32% | +47% | |
| 30.8% | +44% |
* Did not file this period: its imports are seen through its partners’ reports.
Who could fill the gap: Iraq, 97% of its imports
The suppliers it already buys from, in proportion to their shares: each would have to ship 3,279% more. Share now, then the part of the gap it would take:
- Thailand 1% +32.6 pp
- Japan 0.76% +25 pp
- Taiwan 0.68% +22.3 pp
- Smaller suppliers 0.52% +17.1 pp
The largest other exporters, by share of world exports
- Germany 7.5%
- Thailand 6.7% · already a supplier
- Korea 5.7%
- Japan 4.3% · already a supplier
- Mexico 4.2%
First-round arithmetic on trade shares, not a forecast: an importer’s exposure is its import share from the shocked suppliers × the cut. No stocks, no new suppliers, no price changes.
Suppliers are read from the flows the map stores for the stage: each importer’s ten largest suppliers and every flow above 0.05% of world trade; the rest are “smaller suppliers”. The next stage and the use share come from the chain file.