Cases · Tools
Cut a supplier
Pick a stage of one of the ten chains and an exporter, and cut its exports: who loses what share of their supply, who could fill the gap, and what passes one stage down the chain. First-round arithmetic on 2024 trade shares, not a forecast.
- 89stages to choose from
- 2024the year of the shares
- 25exporters of this stage listed
Steel and cars · S4 · Flat-rolled steel (hot, cold, coated)
Cut the exports of China in Flat-rolled steel (hot, cold, coated) (Steel and cars, stage 4) and follow the shortfall to the importers and one stage down the chain.
Who loses what share of their supply: Flat-rolled steel, 2024
- World exports cut26%
- Importers with over a quarter at risk17
| Importer | At risk, share of its imports | Its other suppliers would ship |
|---|---|---|
| 79.6% | +391% | |
| 79.5% | +389% | |
| 77.6% | +347% | |
| 75.7% | +311% | |
| 72.9% | +269% | |
| 71.6% | +252% | |
| 63.4% | +173% | |
| 58.1% | +139% | |
| 46.4% | +87% | |
| 43.8% | +78% | |
| 43.6% | +77% | |
| 41.4% | +71% |
* Did not file this period: its imports are seen through its partners’ reports.
Who could fill the gap: Saudi Arabia, 79.6% of its imports
The suppliers it already buys from, in proportion to their shares: each would have to ship 391% more. Share now, then the part of the gap it would take:
- Korea 5.7% +22.3 pp
- Japan 4.7% +18.4 pp
- UAE 3% +11.6 pp
- India 1.3% +5.2 pp
- Taiwan 1.1% +4.2 pp
- Austria 1% +4 pp
- Egypt 0.98% +3.8 pp
- Germany 0.96% +3.8 pp
The largest other exporters, by share of world exports
- Korea 9.9% · already a supplier
- Japan 9.3% · already a supplier
- Germany 6.9% · already a supplier
- Belgium 4.5%
- United States 3.2%
One stage down the chain
Car parts and engines
Upper bound (100% pass-through, no use share). This stage feeds only this chain, so the chain file gives it no use share and the whole shortfall passes down.
6.2% of world car parts and engines exports at risk in the first round, summed over the 11 large exporters with an exposure upstream. The 8 listed below carry 5.9%.
| Exporter | Its exposure upstream | World exports at risk |
|---|---|---|
| Korea | 63.4% | 2.5% |
| Japan | 15.4% | 0.87% |
| Thailand | 38.2% | 0.67% |
| Türkiye | 34.5% | 0.56% |
| Mexico | 5% | 0.47% |
| India | 22.6% | 0.37% |
| Taiwan | 43.8% | 0.34% |
| Germany | 1.4% | 0.2% |
An exporter of the next stage loses its share of world exports × its own exposure upstream (× the use share). Exporters on a closed route lose their own exports × the cut. Exposure upstream is the share of its imported flat-rolled steel that came from the closed supplier, not of all the flat-rolled steel it uses: where most are made at home (Japan, Korea, Germany for car parts), it overstates the risk.
First-round arithmetic on trade shares, not a forecast: an importer’s exposure is its import share from the shocked suppliers × the cut. No stocks, no new suppliers, no price changes.
Suppliers are read from the flows the map stores for the stage: each importer’s ten largest suppliers and every flow above 0.05% of world trade; the rest are “smaller suppliers”. The next stage and the use share come from the chain file.