Cases · Tools
Cut a supplier
Pick a stage of one of the ten chains and an exporter, and cut its exports: who loses what share of their supply, who could fill the gap, and what passes one stage down the chain. First-round arithmetic on 2024 trade shares, not a forecast.
- 89stages to choose from
- 2024the year of the shares
- 25exporters of this stage listed
Lithium-ion batteries and electric cars · S5 · Battery-electric and plug-in cars
Cut the exports of Germany in Battery-electric and plug-in cars (Lithium-ion batteries and electric cars, stage 5) and follow the shortfall to the importers and one stage down the chain.
Who loses what share of their supply: Battery-electric and plug-in cars, 2024
- World exports cut25.7%
- Importers with over a quarter at risk22
| Importer | At risk, share of its imports | Its other suppliers would ship |
|---|---|---|
| 58.9% | +143% | |
| 50.9% | +104% | |
| 50% | +100% | |
| 47.7% | +91% | |
| 47.1% | +89% | |
| 45.4% | +83% | |
| 44.3% | +80% | |
| 41.9% | +72% | |
| 41.6% | +71% | |
| 40.1% | +67% | |
| 39.6% | +66% | |
| 38.4% | +62% |
Who could fill the gap: Taiwan, 58.9% of its imports
The suppliers it already buys from, in proportion to their shares: each would have to ship 143% more. Share now, then the part of the gap it would take:
- United States 24.5% +35.2 pp
- Belgium 3.9% +5.6 pp
- Japan 3.9% +5.6 pp
- Italy 3.3% +4.7 pp
- Korea 2.1% +3.1 pp
- Hungary 1.5% +2.1 pp
- Smaller suppliers 1.9% +2.7 pp
The largest other exporters, by share of world exports
- China 19.1%
- Japan 7.3% · already a supplier
- Korea 7% · already a supplier
- Mexico 5.8%
- United States 5.6% · already a supplier
First-round arithmetic on trade shares, not a forecast: an importer’s exposure is its import share from the shocked suppliers × the cut. No stocks, no new suppliers, no price changes.
Suppliers are read from the flows the map stores for the stage: each importer’s ten largest suppliers and every flow above 0.05% of world trade; the rest are “smaller suppliers”. The next stage and the use share come from the chain file.