Cases · Tools
Cut a supplier
Pick a stage of one of the ten chains and an exporter, and cut its exports: who loses what share of their supply, who could fill the gap, and what passes one stage down the chain. First-round arithmetic on 2024 trade shares, not a forecast.
- 89stages to choose from
- 2024the year of the shares
- 25exporters of this stage listed
Chips and electronics · S3 · Polysilicon (99.99% and purer)
Cut the exports of Germany in Polysilicon (99.99% and purer) (Chips and electronics, stage 3) and follow the shortfall to the importers and one stage down the chain.
Who loses what share of their supply: Polysilicon, 2024
- World exports cut34%
- Importers with over a quarter at risk11
| Importer | At risk, share of its imports | Its other suppliers would ship |
|---|---|---|
| 95.9% | +2,267% | |
| 92% | +1,153% | |
| 87.3% | +689% | |
| 78.9% | +373% | |
| 77.5% | +345% | |
| 64.4% | +181% | |
| 62.1% | +164% | |
| 50.7% | +103% | |
| 38.7% | +63% | |
| 33.2% | +50% | |
| 32.6% | +48% | |
| 22.7% | +29% |
* Did not file this period: its imports are seen through its partners’ reports.
Who could fill the gap: Saudi Arabia, 95.9% of its imports
The suppliers it already buys from, in proportion to their shares: each would have to ship 2,267% more. Share now, then the part of the gap it would take:
- China 4.2% +95.9 pp
The largest other exporters, by share of world exports
- United States 29.6%
- China 11.7% · already a supplier
- Malaysia 8%
- Japan 7.3%
- Taiwan 3.7%
One stage down the chain
Doped wafers
Use share unknown (of polysilicon that goes to chips: under 5% by tonnage, shared with battery anodes; not given separately): the scenario stops at this stage.
An exporter of the next stage loses its share of world exports × its own exposure upstream (× the use share). Exporters on a closed route lose their own exports × the cut. Exposure upstream is the share of its imported polysilicon that came from the closed supplier, not of all the polysilicon it uses: where most are made at home (Japan, Korea, Germany for car parts), it overstates the risk.
First-round arithmetic on trade shares, not a forecast: an importer’s exposure is its import share from the shocked suppliers × the cut. No stocks, no new suppliers, no price changes.
Suppliers are read from the flows the map stores for the stage: each importer’s ten largest suppliers and every flow above 0.05% of world trade; the rest are “smaller suppliers”. The next stage and the use share come from the chain file.