Cases · Tools
Cut a supplier
Pick a stage of one of the ten chains and an exporter, and cut its exports: who loses what share of their supply, who could fill the gap, and what passes one stage down the chain. First-round arithmetic on 2024 trade shares, not a forecast.
- 89stages to choose from
- 2024the year of the shares
- 25exporters of this stage listed
Steel and cars · S2 · Ferro-alloys
Cut the exports of Indonesia in Ferro-alloys (Steel and cars, stage 2) and follow the shortfall to the importers and one stage down the chain.
Who loses what share of their supply: Ferro-alloys, 2024
- World exports cut32.1%
- Importers with over a quarter at risk2
| Importer | At risk, share of its imports | Its other suppliers would ship |
|---|---|---|
| 64.1% | +179% | |
| 31.9% | +47% | |
| 12.9% | +15% | |
| 11.2% | +13% | |
| 10.9% | +12% | |
| 4.3% | +4% | |
| 3.7% | +4% | |
| 3.4% | +4% | |
| 0.67% | +1% | |
| 0% | – | |
| 0% | – | |
| 0% | – |
Who could fill the gap: China, 64.1% of its imports
The suppliers it already buys from, in proportion to their shares: each would have to ship 179% more. Share now, then the part of the gap it would take:
- South Africa 9.5% +16.9 pp
- Kazakhstan 8.9% +15.9 pp
- Brazil 6.5% +11.7 pp
- Korea 2% +3.7 pp
- Zimbabwe 1.9% +3.5 pp
- New Caledonia 1.7% +3 pp
- Colombia 1.5% +2.6 pp
- India 1.3% +2.3 pp
The largest other exporters, by share of world exports
- South Africa 9.2% · already a supplier
- Brazil 8.6% · already a supplier
- Kazakhstan 8.2% · already a supplier
- India 6.6% · already a supplier
- China 3.4%
One stage down the chain
Semi-finished steel (slabs, billets)
Upper bound (100% pass-through, no use share). This stage feeds only this chain, so the chain file gives it no use share and the whole shortfall passes down.
8.4% of world semi-finished steel (slabs, billets) exports at risk in the first round, summed over the 6 large exporters with an exposure upstream. The 8 listed below carry 8.4%.
| Exporter | Its exposure upstream | World exports at risk |
|---|---|---|
| China | 64.1% | 7% |
| India | 31.9% | 1.1% |
| Korea | 10.9% | 0.08% |
| Algeria | 3.7% | 0.04% |
| Italy | 4.3% | 0.04% |
| Malaysia | 0.67% | 0.03% |
| Kazakhstan | not a large importer | – |
| Iran | not a large importer | – |
An exporter of the next stage loses its share of world exports × its own exposure upstream (× the use share). Exporters on a closed route lose their own exports × the cut. Exposure upstream is the share of its imported ferro-alloys that came from the closed supplier, not of all the ferro-alloys it uses: where most are made at home (Japan, Korea, Germany for car parts), it overstates the risk.
First-round arithmetic on trade shares, not a forecast: an importer’s exposure is its import share from the shocked suppliers × the cut. No stocks, no new suppliers, no price changes.
Suppliers are read from the flows the map stores for the stage: each importer’s ten largest suppliers and every flow above 0.05% of world trade; the rest are “smaller suppliers”. The next stage and the use share come from the chain file.