Cases · Tools
Cut a supplier
Pick a stage of one of the ten chains and an exporter, and cut its exports: who loses what share of their supply, who could fill the gap, and what passes one stage down the chain. First-round arithmetic on 2024 trade shares, not a forecast.
- 89stages to choose from
- 2024the year of the shares
- 25exporters of this stage listed
Lithium-ion batteries and electric cars · S3 · Cathode active material
Cut the exports of Korea in Cathode active material (Lithium-ion batteries and electric cars, stage 3) and follow the shortfall to the importers and one stage down the chain.
Who loses what share of their supply: Cathode active material, 2024
- World exports cut56.3%
- Importers with over a quarter at risk9
| Importer | At risk, share of its imports | Its other suppliers would ship |
|---|---|---|
| 93.1% | +1,359% | |
| 90.6% | +964% | |
| 82.5% | +472% | |
| 73.9% | +283% | |
| 59.5% | +147% | |
| 49.8% | +99% | |
| 36.1% | +56% | |
| 31.5% | +46% | |
| 29.8% | +42% | |
| 14.5% | +17% | |
| 9.3% | +10% | |
| 8.7% | +10% |
Who could fill the gap: Hungary, 93.1% of its imports
The suppliers it already buys from, in proportion to their shares: each would have to ship 1,359% more. Share now, then the part of the gap it would take:
- United States 6.7% +91.1 pp
- Smaller suppliers 0.15% +2.1 pp
The largest other exporters, by share of world exports
- China 27%
- Japan 9.2%
- United States 1.7% · already a supplier
- Germany 1.1%
- Belgium 0.72%
One stage down the chain
Lithium-ion cells and packs
Upper bound (100% pass-through, no use share). This stage feeds only this chain, so the chain file gives it no use share and the whole shortfall passes down.
68.3% of world lithium-ion cells and packs exports at risk in the first round, summed over the 14 large exporters with an exposure upstream. The 8 listed below carry 68.2%.
| Exporter | Its exposure upstream | World exports at risk |
|---|---|---|
| China | 90.6% | 54.5% |
| Hungary | 93.1% | 5.3% |
| Poland | 73.9% | 4.6% |
| United States | 31.5% | 1.8% |
| Malaysia | 82.5% | 1.2% |
| Japan | 14.5% | 0.48% |
| Indonesia | 49.8% | 0.23% |
| Vietnam | 6.2% | 0.08% |
An exporter of the next stage loses its share of world exports × its own exposure upstream (× the use share). Exporters on a closed route lose their own exports × the cut. Exposure upstream is the share of its imported cathode active material that came from the closed supplier, not of all the cathode active material it uses: where most are made at home (Japan, Korea, Germany for car parts), it overstates the risk.
First-round arithmetic on trade shares, not a forecast: an importer’s exposure is its import share from the shocked suppliers × the cut. No stocks, no new suppliers, no price changes.
Suppliers are read from the flows the map stores for the stage: each importer’s ten largest suppliers and every flow above 0.05% of world trade; the rest are “smaller suppliers”. The next stage and the use share come from the chain file.