Cases · Tools
Cut a supplier
Pick a stage of one of the ten chains and an exporter, and cut its exports: who loses what share of their supply, who could fill the gap, and what passes one stage down the chain. First-round arithmetic on 2024 trade shares, not a forecast.
- 89stages to choose from
- 2024the year of the shares
- 25exporters of this stage listed
Gas and minerals to fertilisers and crops · S3 · Nitrogen fertilisers (urea, ammonium nitrate)
Cut the exports of Russia in Nitrogen fertilisers (urea, ammonium nitrate) (Gas and minerals to fertilisers and crops, stage 3) and follow the shortfall to the importers and one stage down the chain.
Who loses what share of their supply: Nitrogen fertilisers, 2024
- World exports cut18.3%
- Importers with over a quarter at risk10
| Importer | At risk, share of its imports | Its other suppliers would ship |
|---|---|---|
| 85.9% | +609% | |
| 84% | +527% | |
| 67% | +203% | |
| 61% | +156% | |
| 60.8% | +155% | |
| 45.8% | +84% | |
| 43.5% | +77% | |
| 40.9% | +69% | |
| 38.2% | +62% | |
| 25.3% | +34% | |
| 24.2% | +32% | |
| 23% | +30% |
Who could fill the gap: Ecuador, 85.9% of its imports
The suppliers it already buys from, in proportion to their shares: each would have to ship 609% more. Share now, then the part of the gap it would take:
- Chile 3% +18 pp
- Trinidad and Tobago 2.9% +17.4 pp
- Finland 2.8% +17 pp
- Italy 2.6% +16.1 pp
- Malaysia 2.2% +13.2 pp
- China 0.54% +3.3 pp
- Smaller suppliers 0.15% +0.9 pp
The largest other exporters, by share of world exports
- Oman 11.3%
- Qatar 7.5%
- Saudi Arabia 7%
- Egypt 6.9%
- Algeria 4.3%
One stage down the chain
Wheat, maize and soybeans
Upper bound (100% pass-through, no use share). This stage feeds only this chain, so the chain file gives it no use share and the whole shortfall passes down.
16.1% of world wheat, maize and soybeans exports at risk in the first round, summed over the 13 large exporters with an exposure upstream. The 8 listed below carry 15.9%.
| Exporter | Its exposure upstream | World exports at risk |
|---|---|---|
| Brazil | 25.3% | 8.7% |
| United States | 24.2% | 5.5% |
| Poland | 43.5% | 0.46% |
| Germany | 38.2% | 0.43% |
| France | 11.1% | 0.31% |
| Argentina | 3.7% | 0.25% |
| Serbia | 67% | 0.19% |
| Bulgaria | 12.7% | 0.1% |
An exporter of the next stage loses its share of world exports × its own exposure upstream (× the use share). Exporters on a closed route lose their own exports × the cut. Exposure upstream is the share of its imported nitrogen fertilisers that came from the closed supplier, not of all the nitrogen fertilisers it uses: where most are made at home (Japan, Korea, Germany for car parts), it overstates the risk.
First-round arithmetic on trade shares, not a forecast: an importer’s exposure is its import share from the shocked suppliers × the cut. No stocks, no new suppliers, no price changes.
Suppliers are read from the flows the map stores for the stage: each importer’s ten largest suppliers and every flow above 0.05% of world trade; the rest are “smaller suppliers”. The next stage and the use share come from the chain file.