Cases · Tools
Cut a supplier
Pick a stage of one of the ten chains and an exporter, and cut its exports: who loses what share of their supply, who could fill the gap, and what passes one stage down the chain. First-round arithmetic on 2024 trade shares, not a forecast.
- 89stages to choose from
- 2024the year of the shares
- 25exporters of this stage listed
Steel and cars · S2 · Direct-reduced iron
Cut the exports of Russia in Direct-reduced iron (Steel and cars, stage 2) and follow the shortfall to the importers and one stage down the chain.
Who loses what share of their supply: Direct-reduced iron, 2024
- World exports cut19.8%
- Importers with over a quarter at risk13
| Importer | At risk, share of its imports | Its other suppliers would ship |
|---|---|---|
| 100.2% | none | |
| 100% | none | |
| 96.9% | +3,157% | |
| 84.5% | +544% | |
| 83% | +487% | |
| 74.4% | +291% | |
| 65.9% | +194% | |
| 61.1% | +157% | |
| 56.8% | +132% | |
| 51.6% | +107% | |
| 46.9% | +88% | |
| 41.6% | +71% |
Who could fill the gap: Poland, 100.2% of its imports
It buys from no other supplier in the table: nothing fills the gap in the first round.
The largest other exporters, by share of world exports
- Oman 14.7%
- India 14.6%
- Trinidad and Tobago 12.4%
- Bahrain 8%
- United States 5.2%
One stage down the chain
Semi-finished steel (slabs, billets)
Upper bound (100% pass-through, no use share). This stage feeds only this chain, so the chain file gives it no use share and the whole shortfall passes down.
10.9% of world semi-finished steel (slabs, billets) exports at risk in the first round, summed over the 6 large exporters with an exposure upstream. The 8 listed below carry 10.9%.
| Exporter | Its exposure upstream | World exports at risk |
|---|---|---|
| China | 46.9% | 5.2% |
| India | 83% | 3% |
| Germany | 27.4% | 1.1% |
| Algeria | 65.9% | 0.79% |
| Italy | 74.4% | 0.61% |
| Türkiye | 51.6% | 0.33% |
| Russia | not a large importer | – |
| Ukraine | not a large importer | – |
An exporter of the next stage loses its share of world exports × its own exposure upstream (× the use share). Exporters on a closed route lose their own exports × the cut. Exposure upstream is the share of its imported direct-reduced iron that came from the closed supplier, not of all the direct-reduced iron it uses: where most are made at home (Japan, Korea, Germany for car parts), it overstates the risk.
First-round arithmetic on trade shares, not a forecast: an importer’s exposure is its import share from the shocked suppliers × the cut. No stocks, no new suppliers, no price changes.
Suppliers are read from the flows the map stores for the stage: each importer’s ten largest suppliers and every flow above 0.05% of world trade; the rest are “smaller suppliers”. The next stage and the use share come from the chain file.