Cases · Tools
Cut a supplier
Pick a stage of one of the ten chains and an exporter, and cut its exports: who loses what share of their supply, who could fill the gap, and what passes one stage down the chain. First-round arithmetic on 2024 trade shares, not a forecast.
- 89stages to choose from
- 2024the year of the shares
- 25exporters of this stage listed
Steel and cars · S3 · Semi-finished steel (slabs, billets)
Cut the exports of Russia in Semi-finished steel (slabs, billets) (Steel and cars, stage 3) and follow the shortfall to the importers and one stage down the chain.
Who loses what share of their supply: Semi-finished steel, 2024
- World exports cut20.7%
- Importers with over a quarter at risk11
| Importer | At risk, share of its imports | Its other suppliers would ship |
|---|---|---|
| 100% | none | |
| 76.4% | +324% | |
| 64.9% | +185% | |
| 62.1% | +164% | |
| 60.3% | +152% | |
| 55.7% | +126% | |
| 45% | +82% | |
| 37.6% | +60% | |
| 34.2% | +52% | |
| 29.4% | +42% | |
| 25.1% | +34% | |
| 24.2% | +32% |
Who could fill the gap: Kazakhstan, 100% of its imports
It buys from no other supplier in the table: nothing fills the gap in the first round.
The largest other exporters, by share of world exports
- China 11%
- Brazil 10%
- Oman 7.6%
- Indonesia 6.5%
- Japan 5.8%
One stage down the chain
Flat-rolled steel (hot, cold, coated)
Upper bound (100% pass-through, no use share). This stage feeds only this chain, so the chain file gives it no use share and the whole shortfall passes down.
18.7% of world flat-rolled steel (hot, cold, coated) exports at risk in the first round, summed over the 12 large exporters with an exposure upstream. The 8 listed below carry 17.9%.
| Exporter | Its exposure upstream | World exports at risk |
|---|---|---|
| China | 37.6% | 9.8% |
| Belgium | 76.4% | 3.4% |
| Taiwan | 45% | 1.4% |
| Kazakhstan | 100% | 0.91% |
| Türkiye | 29.4% | 0.74% |
| Italy | 25.1% | 0.65% |
| India | 24.2% | 0.51% |
| Egypt | 60.3% | 0.48% |
Electrical steel
Upper bound (100% pass-through, no use share). This stage feeds only this chain, so the chain file gives it no use share and the whole shortfall passes down.
15.9% of world electrical steel exports at risk in the first round, summed over the 12 large exporters with an exposure upstream. The 8 listed below carry 15.6%.
| Exporter | Its exposure upstream | World exports at risk |
|---|---|---|
| China | 37.6% | 11.4% |
| Taiwan | 45% | 2.1% |
| Czechia | 62.1% | 1% |
| France | 7.8% | 0.27% |
| Italy | 25.1% | 0.26% |
| Korea | 2.6% | 0.23% |
| Türkiye | 29.4% | 0.21% |
| Belgium | 76.4% | 0.18% |
An exporter of the next stage loses its share of world exports × its own exposure upstream (× the use share). Exporters on a closed route lose their own exports × the cut. Exposure upstream is the share of its imported semi-finished steel that came from the closed supplier, not of all the semi-finished steel it uses: where most are made at home (Japan, Korea, Germany for car parts), it overstates the risk.
First-round arithmetic on trade shares, not a forecast: an importer’s exposure is its import share from the shocked suppliers × the cut. No stocks, no new suppliers, no price changes.
Suppliers are read from the flows the map stores for the stage: each importer’s ten largest suppliers and every flow above 0.05% of world trade; the rest are “smaller suppliers”. The next stage and the use share come from the chain file.