Cases · Tools
Cut a supplier
Pick a stage of one of the ten chains and an exporter, and cut its exports: who loses what share of their supply, who could fill the gap, and what passes one stage down the chain. First-round arithmetic on 2024 trade shares, not a forecast.
- 89stages to choose from
- 2024the year of the shares
- 25exporters of this stage listed
Gas and minerals to fertilisers and crops · S2 · Ammonia
Cut the exports of Trinidad and Tobago in Ammonia (Gas and minerals to fertilisers and crops, stage 2) and follow the shortfall to the importers and one stage down the chain.
Who loses what share of their supply: Ammonia, 2024
- World exports cut18.7%
- Importers with over a quarter at risk6
| Importer | At risk, share of its imports | Its other suppliers would ship |
|---|---|---|
| 100.1% | none | |
| 90.5% | +958% | |
| 73.4% | +275% | |
| 46.2% | +86% | |
| 34.9% | +54% | |
| 33.7% | +51% | |
| 24.7% | +33% | |
| 22% | +28% | |
| 21.6% | +28% | |
| 21.2% | +27% | |
| 13.3% | +15% | |
| 12.8% | +15% |
Who could fill the gap: Colombia, 100.1% of its imports
It buys from no other supplier in the table: nothing fills the gap in the first round.
The largest other exporters, by share of world exports
- Saudi Arabia 13.4%
- Indonesia 8.8%
- Canada 8.6%
- United States 7.7%
- Oman 6.6%
One stage down the chain
Nitrogen fertilisers (urea, ammonium nitrate)
Upper bound (100% pass-through, no use share). This stage feeds only this chain, so the chain file gives it no use share and the whole shortfall passes down.
1.6% of world nitrogen fertilisers (urea, ammonium nitrate) exports at risk in the first round, summed over the 3 large exporters with an exposure upstream. The 8 listed below carry 1.6%.
| Exporter | Its exposure upstream | World exports at risk |
|---|---|---|
| United States | 34.9% | 0.96% |
| Bulgaria | 46.2% | 0.4% |
| Netherlands | 13.3% | 0.2% |
| Russia | not a large importer | – |
| Oman | not a large importer | – |
| Qatar | not a large importer | – |
| Saudi Arabia | not a large importer | – |
| Egypt | not a large importer | – |
Phosphate fertilisers (DAP, MAP)
Upper bound (100% pass-through, no use share). This stage feeds only this chain, so the chain file gives it no use share and the whole shortfall passes down.
9.9% of world phosphate fertilisers (DAP, MAP) exports at risk in the first round, summed over the 8 large exporters with an exposure upstream. The 8 listed below carry 9.9%.
| Exporter | Its exposure upstream | World exports at risk |
|---|---|---|
| Morocco | 24.7% | 6.9% |
| United States | 34.9% | 2.5% |
| Bulgaria | 46.2% | 0.23% |
| Belgium | 21.2% | 0.18% |
| South Africa | 12.8% | 0.04% |
| Türkiye | 12% | 0.03% |
| Italy | 12.7% | 0.02% |
| India | 1% | 0% |
An exporter of the next stage loses its share of world exports × its own exposure upstream (× the use share). Exporters on a closed route lose their own exports × the cut. Exposure upstream is the share of its imported ammonia that came from the closed supplier, not of all the ammonia it uses: where most are made at home (Japan, Korea, Germany for car parts), it overstates the risk.
First-round arithmetic on trade shares, not a forecast: an importer’s exposure is its import share from the shocked suppliers × the cut. No stocks, no new suppliers, no price changes.
Suppliers are read from the flows the map stores for the stage: each importer’s ten largest suppliers and every flow above 0.05% of world trade; the rest are “smaller suppliers”. The next stage and the use share come from the chain file.