trade-flow
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  • money-flow

    Where money is made and where it goes: central bank and bank money, and cross-border positions by country pair.

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    The world trade network and ten product chains from ore to product, with the events that moved them.

  • global-network

    Funding and trade together: how economies earn, who funds whom against who trades with whom, and what past shocks did to both.

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Method · Checks

In 5 of 116 products, one year’s monthly files miss the annual files by over 5%

Every check in the ladder, its threshold, its last run and its result, for every product on the site. A check that could not run says “not run”, never “pass”.

Every check

One row per check, with the number of products in each status. Tier 5 counts quoted numbers rather than products.

Counts: products (tiers 0–4) or quotations (tier 5) in each status. Thresholds as set in scripts/checks.py. Source: data/checks/index.json, run 31 Oct 2026.
TierCheckThresholdLast runPassWatchFailInfoNot run
0Twelve monthly files against the annual file (exports of the ten largest exporters and Korea, 2017–2024)the value-weighted gap of any year: watch above 1%, fail above 5%; each reporter's gap is listed31 Oct 20264756508
0Monthly mirror ratio of the five largest flows (importer's report ÷ exporter's)note outside 0.8–1.2531 Oct 202617890010
0Jumps in world trade at the HS breaks of 2017 and 2022watch above three times the usual yearly change and 15%31 Oct 20268431001
0Timing share: how much of the month-to-month noise in the mirror ratio (importer's report ÷ exporter's) goes when months are summed in threescontext: 1 − var(log ratio, 3-month sums) ÷ var(log ratio, single months), flows both sides filed, 2015–202431 Oct 20260001008
0Splice backtest: reported windows hidden, estimated, and compared with the report (median absolute % error and 90th percentile)pass when the splice beats the partner's report as is at every window length31 Oct 20268919000
0No single month can be computed from the published windows (rank test of the largest flows)fail if any tested flow has a single month in the span of its windows31 Oct 20261080000
0Korea Customs Service supplement: every month from the first to the last stored, each with every country that tradedfail on a missing month or country31 Oct 202610000
0Korea Customs Service: the sum over countries against Korea's trade with the world, by month and flowpass within 0.1%, fail above 0.5%; watch when any HS6 code is off by more than 1%31 Oct 202610000
0Korea Customs Service: value on country codes not mapped to an economy (Areas n.e.s. included)pass up to 0.1% of the month, fail above 1% or on an unknown code31 Oct 202601000
0Korea Customs Service: revisions at the last fetch to months older than threewatch above 0.5% of a month31 Oct 202610000
0Korea Customs Service against Korea's Comtrade file on the months both hold: partners, partner × HS chapter, watch codespass within 0.1% for all goods, fail above 0.5%; watch on a partner-chapter pair over US$10 m off by more than 1%31 Oct 202601000
0Korea Customs Service: the newest month stored against the calendar (after the 25th, last month's)watch when late31 Oct 202610000
0Korea Customs Service, 2000–2012 (before Korea's first Comtrade monthly file), summed by year against Korea's annual Comtrade file: the world, partners, watch HS6 codespass within 0.1% (world), 0.5% (partners) and 1% (watch codes); else watch31 Oct 202601000
0Where Korea's series changes source (customs ↔ Comtrade): the month-to-month change against the usual change between the same two monthspass within 10% of the usual change31 Oct 202610000
0Korea Customs Service against Korea's Comtrade file for this product, every month both hold: exports and importswatch when a month over US$1 m is off by more than 1%31 Oct 20261043007
0Korea Customs Service against Korea's Comtrade file for every chain stage and basket: the distribution of the monthly gaps (median, 95th percentile, largest)watch when any product-month over US$1 m is off by more than 1%31 Oct 202601000
0Korea Customs Service records summed over every code and country against the service's own monthly export and import totals (ECOS 901Y118), month by montheach month passes within 0.1%; watch when any month fails31 Oct 202601000
0When Korea's Comtrade file replaces the customs months: the switch logged, and each year's gap between the two sourceswatch when a year's exports or imports differ by more than 0.5%31 Oct 202610000
0Incomplete periods: no drawn point of an economy's 12-month line falls by 30% or more while its completeness falls; economy-months flagged in 2015–2024; the last month offeredwatch on any such fall31 Oct 202601000
1Korea's exports against the Bank of Korea's export value index (3-month sums, year on year)pass with correlation ≥ 0.8 over 24 months and no two months running of opposite signs31 Oct 202640000
1US imports by origin against the Census (FRED), all goodspass with correlation ≥ 0.8 and a mean level gap within 5%31 Oct 202661000
2Exchange rates (FRED H.10): the change at home next to the change in dollarscontext31 Oct 202600040
2Value against volume (net weight); price-driven when the unit value explains more than halfcontext31 Oct 2026000832
2Unit values against world prices (IMF primary commodity prices, FRED)pass with a correlation of yearly changes ≥ 0.731 Oct 202652000
2US industrial output of the industry (FRED) against world trade in the productcontext31 Oct 202600070
3Firms: Korean chain companies' segment revenue (DART, kfd lake)not built yet31 Oct 20260000115
3Korea's cathode exports against the cathode makers' revenue (DART filings), quarterly, year on yearpass with a correlation of yearly changes ≥ 0.731 Oct 202610000
4Physical balances: production against traded tonnage (USGS, IEA)not built yet31 Oct 20260000116
5Papers: the numbers the case studies quote, found in the paper textpass when the quotation is found in the paper2 Nov 2026280000
All product checks, tiers 0–44712075194267

By product

Tier 0 for every product and tier 1 where a national series exists. The monthly-sum status comes from the worst year, 2017 to 2025, of the value-weighted gap of the ten largest exporters and Korea (the sum of |twelve monthly files − annual file| ÷ the sum of the annual files); “Worst gap” is the largest single reporter’s gap (monthly sum ÷ annual − 1). Open a product to see its check pairs in the explorer.

Monthly sum: watch above 1%, fail above 5%. Mirror: the five largest flows filed by both sides, Jan 2023 to Dec 2024; mean monthly ratio of the importer’s report to the exporter’s. Source: data/checks/<product>.json, run 31 Oct 2026.
Explorer
All goodsAll goodsPass+4.7% · ITA 2017Watch2 of 5 outside 0.8–1.25PassBank of Korea indexWatchUS Census, 7 partners: 6 pass · 1 watchChecks
Iron and steelHS chapterNot run–Not runno flow filed by both sidesPassBank of Korea indexChecks
SemiconductorsBasketWatch+22.7% · PHL 2017Watch2 of 3 outside 0.8–1.25PassBank of Korea indexChecks
Integrated circuitsBasketWatch+26.1% · PHL 2017Watch2 of 3 outside 0.8–1.25–Checks
Chip-making equipmentBasketWatch−14.6% · SGP 2023Watch1 of 4 outside 0.8–1.25–Checks
Rare earthsBasketPass−60% · NLD 2021Watch3 of 4 outside 0.8–1.25–Checks
Lithium chemicalsBasketWatch−92% · ARG 2020Watch3 of 5 outside 0.8–1.25–Checks
CobaltBasketWatch−7% · NOR 2017Watch3 of 4 outside 0.8–1.25–Checks
Natural graphiteBasketWatch+12.4% · NLD 2021Watch3 of 5 outside 0.8–1.25–Checks
NickelBasketWatch−16.7% · PHL 2017Watch3 of 4 outside 0.8–1.25–Checks
Lithium-ion batteriesBasketPass−26.9% · NLD 2021Watch2 of 5 outside 0.8–1.25–Checks
Solar cells and modulesBasketPass−100% · KHM 2019Watch2 of 5 outside 0.8–1.25–Checks
Electric carsBasketWatch−8.3% · CZE 2018Watch2 of 5 outside 0.8–1.25–Checks
Passenger carsBasketWatch+3.3% · DEU 2024Pass0 of 5 outside 0.8–1.25PassBank of Korea indexChecks
Car partsBasketPass+4.5% · ITA 2017Pass0 of 5 outside 0.8–1.25–Checks
Crude oilBasketWatch−82.4% · NLD 2022Watch2 of 5 outside 0.8–1.25–Checks
Refined oil productsBasketPass+4.7% · ITA 2017Watch1 of 5 outside 0.8–1.25–Checks
Natural gasBasketWatch−24.7% · AZE 2017Pass0 of 1 outside 0.8–1.25–Checks
CoalBasketPass+10.3% · NLD 2023Watch1 of 5 outside 0.8–1.25–Checks
WheatBasketWatch−25.9% · ARG 2022Watch3 of 5 outside 0.8–1.25–Checks
Maize (corn)BasketWatch−8.9% · ARG 2018Watch2 of 4 outside 0.8–1.25–Checks
SoybeansBasketPass+19.8% · NGA 2024Watch3 of 5 outside 0.8–1.25–Checks
FertilisersBasketWatch−9.8% · MAR 2024Watch2 of 5 outside 0.8–1.25–Checks
Vaccines and blood productsBasketWatch+59.6% · NLD 2024Watch5 of 5 outside 0.8–1.25–Checks
MedicinesBasketWatch+4.7% · ITA 2017Watch3 of 5 outside 0.8–1.25–Checks
Masks and other textile goodsBasketWatch−19.7% · MAR 2024Watch3 of 5 outside 0.8–1.25–Checks
VentilatorsBasketWatch+43.3% · NLD 2023Watch1 of 5 outside 0.8–1.25–Checks
Rubber glovesBasketPass+15% · NLD 2022Watch1 of 5 outside 0.8–1.25–Checks
Aircraft and spacecraftBasketWatch−47.3% · CHN 2022Watch4 of 5 outside 0.8–1.25–Checks
Mobile phonesBasketWatch+33.2% · NLD 2024Watch2 of 5 outside 0.8–1.25–Checks
ComputersBasketPass−7.8% · HKG 2018Watch3 of 4 outside 0.8–1.25–Checks
Lithium ore (spodumene concentrate)Lithium-ion batteries and electric cars, S1Watch+5.9% · NLD 2021Watch3 of 5 outside 0.8–1.25–Checks
Nickel oreLithium-ion batteries and electric cars, S1Fail−16.7% · PHL 2017Watch2 of 2 outside 0.8–1.25–Checks
Cobalt oreLithium-ion batteries and electric cars, S1Watch+26.5% · NLD 2021Not runno flow filed by both sides–Checks
Natural graphiteLithium-ion batteries and electric cars, S1Watch+12.4% · NLD 2021Watch3 of 5 outside 0.8–1.25–Checks
Lithium carbonateLithium-ion batteries and electric cars, S2Fail−92% · ARG 2020Watch5 of 5 outside 0.8–1.25–Checks
Lithium hydroxideLithium-ion batteries and electric cars, S2Pass−7.3% · AUS 2020Watch4 of 5 outside 0.8–1.25–Checks
Nickel mattes and intermediates (incl. MHP)Lithium-ion batteries and electric cars, S2Fail−89.1% · ZWE 2020Watch1 of 4 outside 0.8–1.25–Checks
Cobalt intermediates, oxides and hydroxidesLithium-ion batteries and electric cars, S2Fail−14.9% · ZMB 2023Not runno flow filed by both sides–Checks
Cathode active materialLithium-ion batteries and electric cars, S3Pass+3.2% · DEU 2024Watch2 of 5 outside 0.8–1.25–Checks
Anode graphite (artificial)Lithium-ion batteries and electric cars, S3Pass−29.2% · MEX 2017Watch3 of 5 outside 0.8–1.25–Checks
Battery parts (separators, cans, other parts)Lithium-ion batteries and electric cars, S3Not run–Not runno flow filed by both sides–Checks
Lithium-ion cells and packsLithium-ion batteries and electric cars, S4Pass−26.9% · NLD 2021Watch2 of 5 outside 0.8–1.25–Checks
Battery-electric and plug-in carsLithium-ion batteries and electric cars, S5Watch−34.9% · CZE 2019Watch2 of 5 outside 0.8–1.25–Checks
QuartzChips and electronics, S1Watch+6.4% · TUR 2018Watch3 of 4 outside 0.8–1.25–Checks
Silicon metal (below 99.99%)Chips and electronics, S2Watch−7.1% · CHN 2022Pass0 of 5 outside 0.8–1.25–Checks
Polysilicon (99.99% and purer)Chips and electronics, S3Watch+18.4% · HKG 2023Watch1 of 3 outside 0.8–1.25–Checks
Gallium, germanium, indium (unwrought)Chips and electronics, S3Watch−7.7% · HKG 2018Watch1 of 2 outside 0.8–1.25–Checks
Doped wafersChips and electronics, S4Watch−39.3% · SGP 2023Watch1 of 4 outside 0.8–1.25–Checks
Chip-making machines (side input)Chips and electronics, S5Watch−13.8% · HKG 2018Watch1 of 4 outside 0.8–1.25–Checks
Photoresists and photographic chemicals (side input)Chips and electronics, S5Not run–Not runno flow filed by both sides–Checks
Integrated circuitsChips and electronics, S5Watch−8.8% · HKG 2018Watch2 of 3 outside 0.8–1.25–Checks
Discrete semiconductors (diodes, transistors, thyristors)Chips and electronics, S5Not run–Not runno flow filed by both sides–Checks
Printed circuit boards (bare)Chips and electronics, S6Not run–Not runno flow filed by both sides–Checks
Flat panel display modulesChips and electronics, S7Not run–Not runno flow filed by both sides–Checks
Phone and computer parts (assembled boards and others)Chips and electronics, S7Not run–Not runno flow filed by both sides–Checks
SmartphonesChips and electronics, S8Watch+35.9% · NLD 2024Watch2 of 5 outside 0.8–1.25–Checks
Laptops and computer unitsChips and electronics, S8Pass−8.3% · HKG 2018Watch3 of 4 outside 0.8–1.25–Checks
Solar cellsSolar photovoltaics, S5Pass−5% · IDN 2022Watch2 of 5 outside 0.8–1.25–Checks
Solar modulesSolar photovoltaics, S6Pass−100% · KHM 2019Watch2 of 5 outside 0.8–1.25–Checks
Static converters (incl. solar inverters)Solar photovoltaics, S6Watch−13.4% · ITA 2023Watch1 of 5 outside 0.8–1.25–Checks
Iron ore (fines, lump, pellets)Steel and cars, S1Pass+14.8% · SWE 2023Watch2 of 5 outside 0.8–1.25–Checks
Bituminous coal (incl. coking coal)Steel and cars, S1Watch+15.1% · NLD 2023Watch1 of 4 outside 0.8–1.25–Checks
Ferrous scrapSteel and cars, S1Watch+21.6% · NLD 2024Watch1 of 5 outside 0.8–1.25–Checks
CokeSteel and cars, S2Pass−17.3% · AUS 2024Watch1 of 4 outside 0.8–1.25–Checks
Pig ironSteel and cars, S2Pass−22.9% · NLD 2023Watch4 of 5 outside 0.8–1.25–Checks
Direct-reduced ironSteel and cars, S2Pass+4.4% · BEL 2017Pass0 of 2 outside 0.8–1.25–Checks
Ferro-alloysSteel and cars, S2Pass+2.9% · NOR 2022Watch3 of 5 outside 0.8–1.25–Checks
Semi-finished steel (slabs, billets)Steel and cars, S3Pass+3.3% · DEU 2024Watch2 of 5 outside 0.8–1.25–Checks
Flat-rolled steel (hot, cold, coated)Steel and cars, S4Watch+5.1% · ITA 2017Pass0 of 4 outside 0.8–1.25–Checks
Electrical steelSteel and cars, S4Pass+3.3% · DEU 2024Watch3 of 5 outside 0.8–1.25–Checks
Car parts and enginesSteel and cars, S5Pass+4.5% · ITA 2017Pass0 of 5 outside 0.8–1.25–Checks
Passenger carsSteel and cars, S6Watch+23.4% · MEX 2021Pass0 of 5 outside 0.8–1.25–Checks
BauxiteAluminium, S1Watch+37.6% · GHA 2022Watch2 of 3 outside 0.8–1.25–Checks
AluminaAluminium, S2Pass−4.8% · AUS 2021Pass0 of 3 outside 0.8–1.25–Checks
Calcined petroleum coke (anode input)Aluminium, S2Watch+50.5% · NLD 2024Watch2 of 4 outside 0.8–1.25–Checks
Unwrought aluminiumAluminium, S3Pass−6.6% · NLD 2021Watch1 of 5 outside 0.8–1.25–Checks
Aluminium scrapAluminium, S2Watch−11.4% · MEX 2020Watch4 of 5 outside 0.8–1.25–Checks
Bars, profiles, sheet and foilAluminium, S4Pass+8.1% · TUR 2018Pass0 of 5 outside 0.8–1.25–Checks
Structures, cans and containersAluminium, S5Watch+10.3% · NLD 2021Watch2 of 5 outside 0.8–1.25–Checks
Copper concentrateCopper and electrification, S1Watch−17.7% · MEX 2018Pass0 of 5 outside 0.8–1.25–Checks
Mattes, blister and anodesCopper and electrification, S2Pass+7.8% · COD 2019Watch1 of 3 outside 0.8–1.25–Checks
Refined copper cathodeCopper and electrification, S3Pass−6.3% · COD 2017Pass0 of 3 outside 0.8–1.25–Checks
Copper scrapCopper and electrification, S2Watch−19.4% · MEX 2019Watch2 of 5 outside 0.8–1.25–Checks
Wire, strip and foilCopper and electrification, S4Pass+3.3% · DEU 2024Pass0 of 4 outside 0.8–1.25–Checks
Insulated wire and cableCopper and electrification, S5Watch−12.8% · MAR 2024Watch2 of 5 outside 0.8–1.25–Checks
Power transformersCopper and electrification, S5Fail−27.4% · MEX 2020Watch2 of 5 outside 0.8–1.25–Checks
Rare-earth ore (no own code)Rare earths, magnets and motors, S1Watch+5.9% · NLD 2021Watch3 of 5 outside 0.8–1.25–Checks
Rare-earth compounds (oxides, carbonates)Rare earths, magnets and motors, S2Watch−61.5% · NLD 2021Watch2 of 4 outside 0.8–1.25–Checks
Rare-earth metals and alloysRare earths, magnets and motors, S3Pass+18.4% · NLD 2023Watch1 of 2 outside 0.8–1.25–Checks
Permanent magnets of metal (NdFeB, SmCo)Rare earths, magnets and motors, S4Pass−8.5% · HKG 2018Watch1 of 5 outside 0.8–1.25–Checks
Electric motors (multi-phase AC, large DC)Rare earths, magnets and motors, S5Pass−6.5% · CZE 2022Watch2 of 5 outside 0.8–1.25–Checks
Wind turbinesRare earths, magnets and motors, S5Watch−19.6% · NLD 2021Watch2 of 4 outside 0.8–1.25–Checks
Crude oilOil and gas to plastics, S1Watch−82.4% · NLD 2022Watch2 of 5 outside 0.8–1.25–Checks
Natural gas and LPGOil and gas to plastics, S1Watch−24.7% · AZE 2017Watch2 of 4 outside 0.8–1.25–Checks
Light oils (naphtha, with gasoline)Oil and gas to plastics, S2Pass−3.9% · SGP 2023Pass0 of 5 outside 0.8–1.25–Checks
Olefins and aromaticsOil and gas to plastics, S3Pass+3.2% · DEU 2024Watch2 of 5 outside 0.8–1.25–Checks
PTA, ethylene glycol, vinyl chlorideOil and gas to plastics, S4Pass+2.1% · JPN 2022Watch2 of 5 outside 0.8–1.25–Checks
Polymers (PE, PP, PVC, PET, PS)Oil and gas to plastics, S5Pass+3.3% · DEU 2024Pass0 of 5 outside 0.8–1.25–Checks
Synthetic rubber (SBR)Oil and gas to plastics, S5Pass−4.1% · SGP 2023Watch2 of 5 outside 0.8–1.25–Checks
Film, sheets and packagingOil and gas to plastics, S6Watch+5.1% · ITA 2017Watch2 of 5 outside 0.8–1.25–Checks
Car tyresOil and gas to plastics, S6Pass−7.2% · MEX 2018Pass0 of 5 outside 0.8–1.25–Checks
Raw cottonCotton and polyester to clothing, S1Pass+13.7% · TUR 2018Watch5 of 5 outside 0.8–1.25–Checks
PTA and ethylene glycolCotton and polyester to clothing, S1Pass+1.3% · USA 2017Watch1 of 5 outside 0.8–1.25–Checks
Cotton yarnCotton and polyester to clothing, S2Watch−8.3% · UZB 2023Watch1 of 3 outside 0.8–1.25–Checks
Polyester fibre and filamentCotton and polyester to clothing, S2Pass+8.2% · TUR 2018Watch3 of 5 outside 0.8–1.25–Checks
Woven and knitted fabricCotton and polyester to clothing, S3Pass+7.1% · TUR 2018Watch2 of 4 outside 0.8–1.25–Checks
Clothing (knitted and woven)Cotton and polyester to clothing, S4Watch−97.6% · KHM 2018Watch4 of 5 outside 0.8–1.25–Checks
Natural gasGas and minerals to fertilisers and crops, S1Watch−24.7% · AZE 2017Pass0 of 1 outside 0.8–1.25–Checks
Phosphate rockGas and minerals to fertilisers and crops, S1Watch−7.2% · ZAF 2018Watch2 of 2 outside 0.8–1.25–Checks
AmmoniaGas and minerals to fertilisers and crops, S2Pass−3.7% · NLD 2020Watch3 of 5 outside 0.8–1.25–Checks
Phosphoric acidGas and minerals to fertilisers and crops, S2Not run–Not runno flow filed by both sides–Checks
Nitrogen fertilisers (urea, ammonium nitrate)Gas and minerals to fertilisers and crops, S3Pass+7.7% · NGA 2020Watch2 of 5 outside 0.8–1.25–Checks
Phosphate fertilisers (DAP, MAP)Gas and minerals to fertilisers and crops, S3Watch−28.4% · EGY 2023Watch3 of 4 outside 0.8–1.25–Checks
Potash (potassium chloride)Gas and minerals to fertilisers and crops, S3Pass−4.6% · NLD 2021Watch3 of 5 outside 0.8–1.25–Checks
Wheat, maize and soybeansGas and minerals to fertilisers and crops, S4Watch−10.6% · ARG 2022Watch3 of 5 outside 0.8–1.25–Checks

Validators

The national and market series that tiers 1 and 2 compare against, fetched and validated through the articles pipeline’s tools.

ECOS: Bank of Korea. FRED: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (Census imports, IMF commodity prices, Federal Reserve industrial production and H.10 exchange rates). Source: data/checks/index.json, run 31 Oct 2026.
SeriesWhatLast month fetchedFetched
ecos-403y001-aa-mKorea export value index, all goodsSep 2026Passfetched
ecos-403y001-3091aa-mKorea export value index, semiconductorsSep 2026Passfetched
ecos-403y001-31211aa-mKorea export value index, motor vehiclesSep 2026Passfetched
ecos-403y001-3071aa-mKorea export value index, primary steel productsSep 2026Passfetched
ecos-901y118-t002-mKorea customs exports, total (Korea Customs Service via ECOS)Aug 2026Passfetched
ecos-901y118-t004-mKorea customs imports, total (Korea Customs Service via ECOS)Aug 2026Passfetched
fred-us-imports-china-mUS goods imports from China, customs basisAug 2026Passfetched
fred-us-imports-mexico-mUS goods imports from Mexico, customs basisAug 2026Passfetched
fred-us-imports-korea-mUS goods imports from Korea, customs basisAug 2026Passfetched
fred-us-imports-japan-mUS goods imports from Japan, customs basisAug 2026Passfetched
fred-us-imports-vietnam-mUS goods imports from Vietnam, customs basisAug 2026Passfetched
fred-us-imports-taiwan-mUS goods imports from Taiwan, customs basisAug 2026Passfetched
fred-us-imports-eu-mUS goods imports from the European Union, customs basisAug 2026Passfetched
fred-nickel-price-mGlobal price of nickel (IMF)Sep 2026Passfetched
fred-copper-price-mGlobal price of copper (IMF)Sep 2026Passfetched
fred-aluminium-price-mGlobal price of aluminium (IMF)Sep 2026Passfetched
fred-iron-ore-price-mGlobal price of iron ore (IMF)Sep 2026Passfetched
fred-brent-price-mGlobal price of Brent crude (IMF)Sep 2026Passfetched
fred-eu-gas-price-mGlobal price of natural gas, EU (IMF)Sep 2026Passfetched
fred-us-ip-semiconductors-mUS industrial production: semiconductors and componentsSep 2026Passfetched
fred-us-ip-motor-vehicles-mUS industrial production: motor vehicles and partsSep 2026Passfetched
fred-us-ip-chemicals-mUS industrial production: chemicalsSep 2026Passfetched
fred-us-ip-primary-metals-mUS industrial production: primary metalsSep 2026Passfetched
fred-krw-per-usd-mWon per US dollar, monthly averageSep 2026Passfetched
fred-jpy-per-usd-mYen per US dollar, monthly averageSep 2026Passfetched
fred-usd-per-eur-mUS dollars per euro, monthly averageSep 2026Passfetched
fred-cny-per-usd-mYuan per US dollar, monthly averageSep 2026Passfetched

The monthly explorer: timing, the splice and the single-month guard

Timing. Where both sides filed every month (Jan 2015 to Dec 2024), the importer’s and the exporter’s reports of the same flow drift apart from month to month because goods ship in one month and arrive in the next. For all goods (681 flows), 37% of the single-month variance of the log mirror ratio is gone at 3-month sums and 59% at 12-month sums. The median timing share over 108 products is 53%. This is why the page shows no single month.

The splice backtest hides windows that the importer did report, estimates them from the exporter’s report, and compares the estimate with the report. The table gives the median absolute error and, in brackets, the 90th percentile. “As built” is the splice the page uses (each month’s ratio from the 12 months ending a year earlier); “D14 form” is own(t − 12) × partner(t) ÷ partner(t − 12) on the window; “partner as is” is the exporter’s report with no splice, the explorer’s old rule.

Splice backtest, all goods, windows ending Jan 2015 to Dec 2024: median absolute error (90th percentile). Importer size by 2024 imports in the monthly layer.
WindowImporter sizeWindows testedAs builtD14 formPartner as is
3-month sumAll98,7867.7% (31.1%)7.9% (33.5%)17.1% (61%)
3-month sumSmallest quarter (below $9.7bn)5,02610.9% (48.8%)10.3% (48%)20% (77.9%)
3-month sumSecond quarter ($9.7bn to $41.7bn)3,0118.4% (36.2%)8.9% (35.8%)19.3% (104%)
3-month sumThird quarter ($41.7bn to $155bn)19,7927.1% (29.3%)7.2% (31.7%)13.6% (54.7%)
3-month sumLargest quarter (above $155bn)70,9577.7% (30.1%)8% (32.9%)17.7% (60.4%)
6-month sumAll96,4926.5% (26.6%)6.3% (26.5%)16.3% (58.9%)
6-month sumSmallest quarter (below $9.7bn)4,6209.4% (45.1%)8.4% (41.4%)19.5% (74.8%)
6-month sumSecond quarter ($9.7bn to $41.7bn)2,8507.4% (31.6%)7.3% (29.3%)18.8% (111%)
6-month sumThird quarter ($41.7bn to $155bn)19,4155.9% (24.8%)5.8% (24.9%)12.8% (52.6%)
6-month sumLargest quarter (above $155bn)69,6076.5% (25.8%)6.3% (26%)17% (58.1%)
12-month sumAll101,7535.5% (22.5%)5.1% (21.1%)15.6% (56.2%)
12-month sumSmallest quarter (below $9.7bn)4,3837.9% (38.3%)7% (35.7%)18.7% (68%)
12-month sumSecond quarter ($9.7bn to $41.7bn)2,8546.5% (26.2%)5.7% (23.8%)17.6% (118%)
12-month sumThird quarter ($41.7bn to $155bn)20,5515% (21%)4.7% (20.1%)12.2% (51%)
12-month sumLargest quarter (above $155bn)73,9655.5% (21.8%)5.1% (20.3%)16.4% (55.4%)

Over 108 products, the median of the products’ median errors is 23.4% for the splice against 27.1% for the partner’s report at 3 months, and 14.2% against 19.9% at 12 months.

The single-month guard. A flow enters a window only when its value is positive in every month of it, so every published window is a sum of three-month blocks of one series; the builder tests 37,246 flows for a single month in the span of their windows and found 0. The rule leaves out 4.8% of world value from 12-month windows and 1.6% from 3-month windows on average, most of it in months not yet filed. 9,240 flow-years were benchmarked to annual files.

The coverage line

Coverage of the monthly layer, Jan 2023 to Sep 2026

Share of 2024 world exports filed, %

Show the months as a table
MonthCoverage, %Reporters
Jan 202399.6120
Feb 202399.6120
Mar 202399.6120
Apr 202399.6120
May 202399.6120
Jun 202399.6121
Jul 202399.6121
Aug 202399.6121
Sep 202399.6121
Oct 202399.6121
Nov 202399.6121
Dec 202399.6121
Jan 2024100107
Feb 2024100108
Mar 202499.7105
Apr 202499.7106
May 202499.7105
Jun 202499.7105
Jul 202499.7104
Aug 202499.7105
Sep 202499.7104
Oct 202499.7105
Nov 202499.7105
Dec 202499.7105
Jan 202584.3101
Feb 202584.398
Mar 202584.397
Apr 202584.398
May 202583.996
Jun 202583.795
Jul 202583.794
Aug 202583.794
Sep 202583.794
Oct 202583.291
Nov 202583.492
Dec 202583.492
Jan 202679.486
Feb 202679.385
Mar 202679.385
Apr 202676.979
May 202674.872
Jun 202672.265
Jul 202667.452
Aug 202641.632
Sep 20263.83
Complete through Dec 2024 (99.7%, 105 economies); 83% in Dec 2025; 67% in Jul 2026; 42% in Aug 2026; 3.8% in Sep 2026. Coverage: the share of 2024 world exports held by the economies that have filed the month, of those that file monthly. Source: UN Comtrade, monthly, all goods; layer built 23 Oct 2026.

The record count and the build

The bundle stores derived records (shares, ranks, ratios) and 0 original records (budget 90,000; UN Comtrade’s line is 100,000). Why and how.

The last build wrote 9,327 files (261 MB) in 5.2 minutes, finishing on 31 Oct 2026.

datasteg: the flow sites