Event 3 · Export ban
Indonesia bans nickel-ore exports
Indonesia stopped all nickel-ore exports from 1 January 2020, two years earlier than first planned, so that the ore would be processed at home. A WTO panel found the ban inconsistent with the GATT in November 2022, and Indonesia appealed.
- 1 Jan 2020 – ongoingdates
- 1economies named
- 3products watched
- 10sources
Before and after
Nickel ore, 2020 against 2019. Economies are coloured by the change in their trade; the economies the event names have a dashed ring.
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What to watch Indonesia leaving the nickel-ore trade, and its rise as an exporter of nickel intermediates (mattes, MHP, nickel sulphate) and ferro-alloys.
Measured, not asserted
Changes on a year earlier and in partner shares between 2019 and 2020. They say what moved in the window, not why it moved.
World trade in nickel ore: change on a year earlier
World trade in nickel ore, Annual data: the change is the year against the year before.: +25.3% in 2019 (the base), −20.4% in 2020.
Source: UN Comtrade, Final data, HS6; mirror rule.
The named economies’ nickel ore trade, 2020 against a year earlier
Indonesia exports −88.3%.
| Share of | Filed | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nickel ore | Indonesia | imports | −99.5% | yes |
| Nickel ore | Indonesia | exports | −88.3% | yes |
| Nickel mattes and intermediates (incl. MHP) | Indonesia | imports | −10.3% | yes |
| Nickel mattes and intermediates (incl. MHP) | Indonesia | exports | −1.3% | yes |
| Ferro-alloys | Indonesia | imports | −8.9% | yes |
| Ferro-alloys | Indonesia | exports | +81.3% | yes |
Diversion: partner shares, 2019 to 2020
Largest move: Indonesia → Ukraine, +8.2 pp (2.3% → 10.5%).
| Share of | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indonesia → China | exports | 97.3% | 89.2% | −8 pp |
| Indonesia → Ukraine | exports | 2.3% | 10.5% | +8.2 pp |
| Indonesia → North Macedonia | exports | 0.33% | 0% | −0.3 pp |
| Indonesia → Japan | exports | 0.14% | 0% | −0.1 pp |
| Indonesia → Germany | exports | 0.02% | 0.24% | +0.2 pp |
Who gained and lost share of world nickel ore exports
Shares of world nickel ore exports, 2019 to 2020: gained most: Philippines +14.6 pp; lost most: Indonesia −31.9 pp.
Source: UN Comtrade, Final data, HS6; mirror rule.
Who gained and lost share of world nickel mattes and intermediates (incl. MHP) exports
Shares of world nickel mattes and intermediates (incl. MHP) exports, 2019 to 2020: gained most: Russia +1.2 pp; lost most: Philippines −1.1 pp.
Source: UN Comtrade, Final data, HS6; mirror rule.
Who gained and lost share of world ferro-alloys exports
Shares of world ferro-alloys exports, 2019 to 2020: gained most: Indonesia +9.1 pp; lost most: South Africa −1.5 pp.
Source: UN Comtrade, Final data, HS6; mirror rule.
Reading the numbers
Documented context for the figures above that run against the event’s headline. The measurements stand as they are; each item cites its sources.
2020 against 2019 sets the ban's first year against the pre-ban rush: the ministry announced the ban on 2 September 2019 with exports allowed to the end of December, and in the series on this page Indonesia's ore exports rose 82.4% in 2019 and fell a further 77.4% in 2021. Against 2018 ($1.0bn) the 2020 level is −79%.
- Front-loading
World nickel-ore trade: +25.3% in 2019 ($5.0bn), then −20.4% in 2020 ($4.0bn); Indonesia's exports $1.9bn (2019) → $217m (2020), −88.3%. The 2019 base is the pre-ban rush. On 2 September 2019 the energy ministry announced that ore below 1.7% nickel could not be exported from 1 January 2020, with a four-month transition to December. China's imports of Indonesian ore rose 72% to 23.9 million tonnes in 2019, 2.47 million tonnes in December alone, as traders stepped up purchases before the ban. [4] [5]
- How the data are reported
Indonesia → China: $1.8bn → $193m (−89.3%), still 89.2% of Indonesia's nickel-ore exports in 2020. This flow is China's report. Chinese customs recorded 3.4 million tonnes of Indonesian ore in 2020 (−85.8%), 1.98 million tonnes of it in January and February: the last cargoes loaded before the 1 January ban. Indonesian data show zero nickel-ore exports to China for January to November 2020; analysts say some later cargoes left declared as iron ore. [6] [7]
- Substitution
Philippines: 30.7% → 45.3% of world nickel-ore exports (+14.6 pp); Philippines → China $1.4bn → $1.8bn (+21.6%). New Caledonia 9.8% → 14.9%. China's nickel-ore imports fell 34.4% to 38.7 million tonnes in 2020, while those from the Philippines held at 31.8 million tonnes (+0.7%): the rise in value is more per tonne, not more ore, and the flow is China's report, 1.68 times what the Philippines reports. New Caledonia's SLN exported 2.5 million wet tonnes of ore in 2020, +55%. [8] [10]
- Scope of the measure
Indonesia: 37.4% → 5.5% of world nickel-ore exports (−31.9 pp), but 16.7% → 16.3% of world nickel mattes and intermediates exports. The ban covers ore only. China's imports of nickel pig iron from Indonesia rose 100.9% to 2.73 million tonnes in 2020, and USGS records the continued ramp-up of nickel pig iron and stainless-steel projects in Indonesia while its mine output fell from 853,000 to 760,000 tonnes of nickel content. Ferronickel is HS 7202, the ferro-alloys stage, not the intermediates charted here. [7] [9]
Partner shares, economy by economy
Each named economy’s five largest partners over the window, in fixed colours, with the rest as Other. The table gives the change in percentage points between 2019 and 2020.
Not drawn, too small or erratic to read month by month: Indonesia (nickel ore imports) and Indonesia (ferro-alloys exports).
Indonesia: nickel ore exports by destination
China: 97.3% in 2019, 89.2% in 2020 (−8 pp).
Source: UN Comtrade, Final data, HS6; mirror rule.
Timeline
- First ban on nickel-ore exports (ESDM Regulation 1/2014) [2]
- Mining ministry announces a ban on all grades from 1 January 2020 [1]
- EU requests WTO consultations (DS592) [3]
- Ban on nickel-ore exports takes effect [1]
- WTO panel finds the ban inconsistent with GATT Article XI:1 [3]
- Indonesia appeals the panel report [3]
What else changed
World exports of nickel ore changed −20.4% between 2019 and 2020.
Other events in the same window:
- US Section 301 tariffs on China start a trade war · 6 Jul 2018 – 15 Jan 2020
- Japan tightens chip-material exports to Korea · 4 Jul 2019 – 23 Mar 2023
- WHO declares COVID-19 a pandemic · 11 Mar 2020 – 5 May 2023
Values are in US dollars: prices and exchange rates move them as well as volumes, and this page does not separate them. None of the numbers here says why trade moved.
Documented context for the figures that run against the headline is in “Reading the numbers”, with sources.
Coverage
Who has filed
171 economies had filed 2020, 99% of 2024 world exports. Every named economy filed the months shown.
Sources
- World's biggest nickel ore maker bans exports from January 2020 · Reuters (via Al Jazeera) · 2 Sep 2019
- Prohibition of the export of nickel ore · International Energy Agency, policies database · 19 Mar 2024
- DS592: Indonesia — Measures relating to raw materials · World Trade Organization · no date; accessed 24 Oct 2026
- Bijih Nikel Tidak Boleh Diekspor Lagi per Januari 2020 (Siaran Pers 549.Pers/04/SJI/2019) · Kementerian ESDM (Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources, Indonesia) · 2 Sep 2019
- China's imports of Indonesian nickel ore rose 72% in 2019 · Shanghai Metals Market (SMM), from China customs data · 3 Feb 2020
- China's nickel ore imports dropped 38% in January as Indonesia banned exports · Shanghai Metals Market (SMM), from China customs data · 27 Feb 2020
- Indonesia stays China's second-biggest nickel ore supplier despite export ban · Reuters (via The Jakarta Post) · 20 Jan 2021
- Imports of nickel ore and ferronickel declined significantly in December 2020 · Shanghai Metals Market (SMM), from China customs data · 26 Jan 2021
- Mineral Commodity Summaries 2021: Nickel (January 2021) · U.S. Geological Survey · 29 Jan 2021
- Eramet: 2020 full-year results · Eramet · 16 Feb 2021
Related case studies and chains
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