Event 1 · Tariffs
US Section 301 tariffs on China start a trade war
The US put a 25% tariff on about $34bn of imports from China on 6 July 2018 and widened the tariffs in rounds through 2019. The two countries signed a Phase One trade agreement on 15 January 2020.
- 6 Jul 2018 – 15 Jan 2020dates
- 5economies named
- 3products watched
- 16sources
Before and after
All goods, Jun 2019 against Jun 2018, lens M (3-month sum against a year earlier). Economies are coloured by the change in their trade; the economies the event names have a dashed ring.
Loading the network…
What to watch China's share of US imports falling while Vietnam, Mexico and Taiwan gain (the dashboard case "US–China").
Measured, not asserted
Changes on a year earlier and in partner shares between Jun 2018 and Jun 2019. They say what moved in the window, not why it moved.
World trade in all goods: change on a year earlier
World trade in all goods, lens M (3-month sum against a year earlier): +10.9% in Jun 2018 (the base), −2.9% in Jun 2019. Lowest since the base: −20.9% in Jun 2020.
Source: UN Comtrade monthly data, all reporters that filed; mirror rule; lens M (3-month sum against a year earlier).
The named economies’ all goods trade, Jun 2019 against a year earlier
Largest fall: China imports −3.1%; largest rise: Vietnam imports +9.5%.
| Share of | Filed | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All goods | United States | imports | +0.5% | yes |
| All goods | United States | exports | −3% | yes |
| All goods | China | imports | −3.1% | yes |
| All goods | China | exports | −1.4% | yes |
| All goods | Vietnam | imports | +9.5% | yes |
| All goods | Vietnam | exports | +9.3% | yes |
| All goods | Mexico | imports | −2% | yes |
| All goods | Mexico | exports | +5.4% | yes |
| All goods | Taiwan | imports | +2.1% | no |
| All goods | Taiwan | exports | −2.2% | no |
| Integrated circuits | United States | imports | −16.7% | yes |
| Integrated circuits | United States | exports | +6.7% | yes |
| Integrated circuits | China | imports | −4.5% | yes |
| Integrated circuits | China | exports | +11.2% | yes |
| Integrated circuits | Vietnam | imports | +29.1% | yes |
| Integrated circuits | Vietnam | exports | +47.9% | yes |
| Integrated circuits | Mexico | imports | +5.1% | yes |
| Integrated circuits | Mexico | exports | −5% | yes |
| Integrated circuits | Taiwan | imports | +6.1% | no |
| Integrated circuits | Taiwan | exports | −4% | no |
| Flat-rolled steel (hot, cold, coated) | United States | imports | −26.9% | yes |
| Flat-rolled steel (hot, cold, coated) | United States | exports | −17.7% | yes |
| Flat-rolled steel (hot, cold, coated) | China | imports | −10.4% | yes |
| Flat-rolled steel (hot, cold, coated) | China | exports | −9.6% | yes |
| Flat-rolled steel (hot, cold, coated) | Vietnam | imports | −5.2% | yes |
| Flat-rolled steel (hot, cold, coated) | Vietnam | exports | −21.1% | yes |
| Flat-rolled steel (hot, cold, coated) | Mexico | imports | −16.3% | yes |
| Flat-rolled steel (hot, cold, coated) | Mexico | exports | −47.8% | yes |
| Flat-rolled steel (hot, cold, coated) | Taiwan | imports | −16.4% | no |
| Flat-rolled steel (hot, cold, coated) | Taiwan | exports | −8.7% | no |
Diversion: partner shares, Jun 2018 to Jun 2019
Largest move: Vietnam → United States, +2.8 pp (17.5% → 20.3%).
| Share of | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| China → United States | imports | 20.3% | 18% | −2.3 pp |
| Mexico → United States | imports | 13.5% | 14.3% | +0.8 pp |
| Canada → United States | imports | 13% | 13.1% | +0.1 pp |
| Japan → United States | imports | 5.5% | 5.8% | +0.2 pp |
| Germany → United States | imports | 5% | 4.9% | −0.1 pp |
| United States → Canada | exports | 15.1% | 15% | −0.1 pp |
| United States → Mexico | exports | 13% | 13.1% | 0 pp |
| United States → China | exports | 10.2% | 7.7% | −2.5 pp |
| United States → Japan | exports | 4.9% | 5% | +0.1 pp |
| United States → Germany | exports | 4.9% | 4.9% | 0 pp |
| Korea → China | imports | 10.4% | 9% | −1.3 pp |
| Japan → China | imports | 9.2% | 8.8% | −0.4 pp |
| Taiwan → China | imports | 9% | 8.5% | −0.4 pp |
| United States → China | imports | 8.5% | 6.4% | −2.1 pp |
| Australia → China | imports | 5.3% | 6.3% | +1 pp |
| China → United States | exports | 20.2% | 18.3% | −1.9 pp |
| China → Hong Kong | exports | 10.5% | 10.2% | −0.3 pp |
| China → Japan | exports | 6.3% | 6.3% | 0 pp |
| China → Germany | exports | 4.4% | 4.4% | 0 pp |
| China → Korea | exports | 4.1% | 4.4% | +0.3 pp |
| China → Vietnam | imports | 28.9% | 31.1% | +2.2 pp |
| Korea → Vietnam | imports | 19.3% | 17.7% | −1.6 pp |
| Japan → Vietnam | imports | 7.8% | 7.3% | −0.5 pp |
| Taiwan → Vietnam | imports | 5.8% | 6.1% | +0.2 pp |
| United States → Vietnam | imports | 5.9% | 6.2% | +0.3 pp |
| Vietnam → China | exports | 18.6% | 18.2% | −0.4 pp |
| Vietnam → United States | exports | 17.5% | 20.3% | +2.8 pp |
| Vietnam → Japan | exports | 7.4% | 7.4% | −0.1 pp |
| Vietnam → Korea | exports | 6.8% | 6.6% | −0.2 pp |
| Vietnam → Germany | exports | 4.3% | 3.5% | −0.9 pp |
| United States → Mexico | imports | 46.9% | 46.5% | −0.4 pp |
| China → Mexico | imports | 17.8% | 17.5% | −0.3 pp |
| Japan → Mexico | imports | 4% | 3.9% | −0.1 pp |
| Germany → Mexico | imports | 3.9% | 3.8% | −0.1 pp |
| Korea → Mexico | imports | 3.5% | 4% | +0.5 pp |
| Mexico → United States | exports | 71.9% | 72.8% | +0.8 pp |
| Mexico → Canada | exports | 6.1% | 5.8% | −0.3 pp |
| Mexico → China | exports | 2.6% | 2.6% | 0 pp |
| Mexico → Germany | exports | 2.3% | 2.1% | −0.3 pp |
| Mexico → Japan | exports | 1.3% | 1.2% | 0 pp |
| Taiwan → China | exports | 38.2% | 36% | −2.2 pp |
| Taiwan → United States | exports | 9.9% | 12.1% | +2.2 pp |
| Taiwan → Hong Kong | exports | 9.4% | 9.1% | −0.2 pp |
| Taiwan → Singapore | exports | 6.8% | 7.1% | +0.4 pp |
| Taiwan → Japan | exports | 5.7% | 5.7% | 0 pp |
Who gained and lost share of world all goods exports
Shares of world all goods exports, Jun 2018 to Jun 2019: gained most: Mexico +0.2 pp; lost most: Germany −0.3 pp.
Source: UN Comtrade monthly data, all reporters that filed; mirror rule; lens M (3-month sum against a year earlier).
Who gained and lost share of world integrated circuits exports
Shares of world integrated circuits exports, Jun 2018 to Jun 2019: gained most: China +1.7 pp; lost most: Korea −3.6 pp.
Source: UN Comtrade monthly data, all reporters that filed; mirror rule; lens M (3-month sum against a year earlier).
Who gained and lost share of world flat-rolled steel (hot, cold, coated) exports
Shares of world flat-rolled steel (hot, cold, coated) exports, Jun 2018 to Jun 2019: gained most: Germany +0.5 pp; lost most: Russia −1.1 pp.
Source: UN Comtrade monthly data, all reporters that filed; mirror rule; lens M (3-month sum against a year earlier).
Reading the numbers
Documented context for the figures above that run against the event’s headline. The measurements stand as they are; each item cites its sources.
Apr–Jun 2018 is the quarter before the first tariff (6 July 2018); Apr–Jun 2019 has the first three lists in force (the September 2018 list at 25% only from 10 May 2019) and precedes List 4A (1 September 2019). It also sits in the 2019 slowdown: the WTO puts 2019 world merchandise trade volume at −0.1% and its dollar value at −3%.
- Front-loading
China → United States: 20.3% → 18.0% of US imports of all goods, $132.5bn → $117.9bn (−11.0%) (Apr–Jun 2018 → Apr–Jun 2019). The 10% tariff on about $200bn of imports from China, in force from 24 September 2018, was due to rise to 25% on 1 January 2019; USTR postponed it twice, to 10 May 2019. Census data show US imports from China peaking at $52.1bn in October 2018 and falling to $31.1bn in March 2019; China's share of US imports here was 22.8% in Sep–Nov 2018 and 16.7% in Feb–Apr 2019. [7] [4] [8]
- Scope of the measure
United States imports of all goods +0.5% ($651.4bn → $654.5bn) while China → United States fell $14.6bn; Mexico → United States +$5.8bn, Vietnam → United States +$3.2bn, Taiwan → United States +$2.2bn. By late September 2018 the tariffs covered 44.7% of US imports from China, up from 0.8% in early July, and the lists in force mostly targeted intermediate inputs. Over 2019 US imports from China fell $87.4bn to $452.2bn, while imports from Mexico rose $12.0bn to $358.1bn and from Vietnam from $49.1bn to $66.4bn. [9] [10] [11]
- Rerouting
Vietnam → United States: 17.5% → 20.3% of Vietnam's exports, $11.9bn → $15.1bn (+26.9%); China → Vietnam: 28.9% → 31.1% of Vietnam's imports, $16.5bn → $19.4bn (+17.7%). Vietnam's share of US imports (1.8% → 2.3%) and of China's exports (2.5% → 3.0%) rose together. A Federal Reserve note finds Vietnam's rising exports to the US came with a disproportionate rise in its imports from China, with Chinese-owned firms' share of those exports up from 11% in 2018–19 to 25% in 2020–23; Iyoha et al. put rerouting in 2018–19 at 16.5% of Vietnam's US exports by product, 1.7% by firm. [12] [13]
- Overlapping event
United States → China: 10.2% → 7.7% of US exports, $42.5bn → $31.0bn (−27.2%), a steeper fall than China → United States (−11.0%). From 6 July 2018 China levied 25% on more than 500 US food and agricultural products, including soybeans, and through 2019 56–58% of its imports from the US carried retaliatory tariffs. US soybean exports to China in January–October 2018 were 63% below 2017, and USDA estimates China's tariffs cut US farm exports by nearly $26bn, soybeans 71% of the losses. [14] [15] [9]
Partner shares, economy by economy
Each named economy’s five largest partners over the window, in fixed colours, with the rest as Other. The table gives the change in percentage points between Jun 2018 and Jun 2019.
United States: all goods imports by supplier
China: 20.3% in Jun 2018, 18% in Jun 2019 (−2.3 pp).
Source: UN Comtrade monthly data, all reporters that filed; mirror rule; lens M (3-month sum against a year earlier).
United States: all goods exports by destination
Canada: 15.1% in Jun 2018, 15% in Jun 2019 (−0.1 pp).
Source: UN Comtrade monthly data, all reporters that filed; mirror rule; lens M (3-month sum against a year earlier).
China: all goods imports by supplier
Korea: 10.4% in Jun 2018, 9% in Jun 2019 (−1.3 pp).
Source: UN Comtrade monthly data, all reporters that filed; mirror rule; lens M (3-month sum against a year earlier).
China: all goods exports by destination
United States: 20.2% in Jun 2018, 18.3% in Jun 2019 (−1.9 pp).
Source: UN Comtrade monthly data, all reporters that filed; mirror rule; lens M (3-month sum against a year earlier).
Vietnam: all goods imports by supplier
China: 28.9% in Jun 2018, 31.1% in Jun 2019 (+2.2 pp).
Source: UN Comtrade monthly data, all reporters that filed; mirror rule; lens M (3-month sum against a year earlier).
Vietnam: all goods exports by destination
China: 18.6% in Jun 2018, 18.2% in Jun 2019 (−0.4 pp).
Source: UN Comtrade monthly data, all reporters that filed; mirror rule; lens M (3-month sum against a year earlier).
Mexico: all goods imports by supplier
United States: 46.9% in Jun 2018, 46.5% in Jun 2019 (−0.4 pp).
Source: UN Comtrade monthly data, all reporters that filed; mirror rule; lens M (3-month sum against a year earlier).
Mexico: all goods exports by destination
United States: 71.9% in Jun 2018, 72.8% in Jun 2019 (+0.8 pp).
Source: UN Comtrade monthly data, all reporters that filed; mirror rule; lens M (3-month sum against a year earlier).
Taiwan: all goods imports by supplier
China: 20.1% in Jun 2018, 21.2% in Jun 2019 (+1.1 pp).
Source: UN Comtrade monthly data, all reporters that filed; mirror rule; lens M (3-month sum against a year earlier).
Taiwan: all goods exports by destination
China: 38.2% in Jun 2018, 36% in Jun 2019 (−2.2 pp).
Source: UN Comtrade monthly data, all reporters that filed; mirror rule; lens M (3-month sum against a year earlier).
Exports as the partners report them: Taiwan has not filed these months.
Timeline
- USTR lists about $50bn of Chinese goods for a 25% tariff [1]
- 25% tariff on about $34bn of imports from China takes effect [1]
- China's retaliatory 25% tariffs on more than 500 US farm products, including soybeans, take effect [14]
- Second tranche: 25% on about $16bn more [2]
- Third tranche: 10% on about $200bn [3]
- Rate on the September 2018 tranche raised from 10% to 25% [4]
- Duties reach the first part (List 4A) of a further $300bn list [5]
- US and China sign the Phase One agreement [6]
- Phase One enters into force; List 4A rate cut from 15% to 7.5% [6]
What else changed
World exports of all goods changed −2.9% between Jun 2018 and Jun 2019.
No other event in the catalogue falls in the same window.
Values are in US dollars: prices and exchange rates move them as well as volumes, and this page does not separate them. None of the numbers here says why trade moved.
Documented context for the figures that run against the headline is in “Reading the numbers”, with sources.
Coverage
Who has filed
129 economies had filed Jun 2019, 99% of 2024 world exports. Not yet filed for the latest months on the charts (to Dec 2019): Taiwan (imports, exports).
Sources
- USTR issues tariffs on Chinese products in response to unfair trade practices · Office of the United States Trade Representative · 15 Jun 2018
- USTR finalizes second tranche of tariffs on Chinese products in response to China's unfair trade practices · Office of the United States Trade Representative · 7 Aug 2018
- USTR finalizes tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese imports in response to China's unfair trade practices · Office of the United States Trade Representative · 18 Sep 2018
- Notice of modification of Section 301 action: China's acts, policies, and practices related to technology transfer, intellectual property, and innovation (84 FR 20459) · Federal Register (USTR) · 9 May 2019
- Notice of modification of Section 301 action: China's acts, policies, and practices related to technology transfer, intellectual property, and innovation (84 FR 43304) · Federal Register (USTR) · 20 Aug 2019
- Notice of modification of Section 301 action: China's acts, policies, and practices related to technology transfer, intellectual property, and innovation (85 FR 3741) · Federal Register (USTR) · 22 Jan 2020
- Notice of modification of Section 301 action: China's acts, policies, and practices related to technology transfer, intellectual property, and innovation (83 FR 47974) · Federal Register (USTR) · 21 Sep 2018
- Trade in Goods with China (customs basis, monthly) · US Census Bureau, Foreign Trade · no date; accessed 25 Oct 2026
- Phase One China Deal: Steep Tariffs Are the New Normal · Peterson Institute for International Economics (Chad P. Bown) · 19 Dec 2019
- U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, December 2019 · US Bureau of Economic Analysis and US Census Bureau · 5 Feb 2020
- Trade in Goods with Vietnam (customs basis, monthly) · US Census Bureau, Foreign Trade · no date; accessed 25 Oct 2026
- Vietnam's Export Boom to the U.S.: The Role of Chinese Firms (FEDS Notes) · Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (Avalos, Hoang and Van Leemput) · 17 Jul 2026
- Exports in Disguise: Trade Rerouting during the US-China Trade War? · Harvard Kennedy School, Center for International Development (Iyoha, Malesky, Wen, Wu and Feng) · 22 Jan 2025
- China's Retaliatory Tariffs on U.S. Agricultural Products (IF11085) · Congressional Research Service (copy at EveryCRSReport) · 29 Jan 2019
- Retaliatory Tariffs Reduced U.S. States' Exports of Agricultural Commodities · USDA Economic Research Service, Amber Waves (Stephen Morgan) · 7 Mar 2022
- Trade set to plunge as COVID-19 pandemic upends global economy (PRESS/855) · World Trade Organization · 8 Apr 2020