Event 12 · War
War on Iran shuts the Strait of Hormuz
The US and Israel struck Iran on 28 February 2026 and tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz all but stopped. A ceasefire (8 April), a US blockade of Iran's ports (13 April) and a memorandum (17 June) did not hold: fighting resumed on 8 July and spread to Bab al-Mandab in September.
- 28 Feb 2026 – ongoingdates
- 13economies named
- 3products watched
- 24sources
Before and after
Crude oil, May 2026 against May 2025, lens M (3-month sum against a year earlier). Economies are coloured by the change in their trade; the economies the event names have a dashed ring.
Loading the network…
What to watch Crude and LNG imports by supplier for the economies that have filed: the Gulf's share of Japan's and India's crude and LNG falling after March 2026, and who replaced it; the Gulf's exports of urea, ammonia and aluminium. China (after Dec 2024) is missing from the store; Korea's months from Jan 2026 come from its customs service.
Measured, not asserted
Changes on a year earlier and in partner shares between May 2025 and May 2026. They say what moved in the window, not why it moved.
World trade in crude oil: change on a year earlier
World trade in crude oil, lens M (3-month sum against a year earlier): −24.6% in May 2025 (the base), −1% in May 2026. Lowest since the base: −27% in Jun 2025.
Source: UN Comtrade monthly data, all reporters that filed; mirror rule; lens M (3-month sum against a year earlier). Korea, Jan–Jul 2026: Korea Customs Service, trade by item and country (data.go.kr), fetched 31 Oct 2026.
The named economies’ crude oil trade, May 2026 against a year earlier
Largest fall: Japan exports −47.3%; largest rise: United States exports +48.1%.
| Share of | Filed | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crude oil | Japan | imports | −17.9% | yes |
| Crude oil | Japan | exports | −47.3% | yes |
| Crude oil | India | imports | +1.7% | yes |
| Crude oil | India | exports | +51.1% | yes |
| Crude oil | Saudi Arabia | exports | −7.3% | no |
| Crude oil | UAE | imports | −84.1% | no |
| Crude oil | UAE | exports | −0.8% | no |
| Crude oil | Qatar | imports | −100% | no |
| Crude oil | Qatar | exports | −69.6% | no |
| Crude oil | Iraq | exports | −63.6% | no |
| Crude oil | Kuwait | exports | −73.3% | no |
| Crude oil | United States | imports | +16.6% | yes |
| Crude oil | United States | exports | +48.1% | yes |
| Natural gas | Japan | imports | +14% | yes |
| Natural gas | Japan | exports | +109% | yes |
| Natural gas | India | imports | +5.8% | yes |
| Natural gas | India | exports | −99.9% | yes |
| Natural gas | Saudi Arabia | imports | −90.5% | no |
| Natural gas | Saudi Arabia | exports | −57.3% | no |
| Natural gas | UAE | imports | −100% | no |
| Natural gas | UAE | exports | −81.7% | no |
| Natural gas | Qatar | imports | −100% | no |
| Natural gas | Qatar | exports | −82.7% | no |
| Natural gas | Iraq | exports | −71.2% | no |
| Natural gas | Kuwait | imports | −100% | no |
| Natural gas | United States | imports | −17.2% | yes |
| Natural gas | United States | exports | +18.2% | yes |
| Nitrogen fertilisers (urea, ammonium nitrate) | Japan | imports | −34.1% | yes |
| Nitrogen fertilisers (urea, ammonium nitrate) | Japan | exports | +33.3% | yes |
| Nitrogen fertilisers (urea, ammonium nitrate) | India | imports | +93.1% | yes |
| Nitrogen fertilisers (urea, ammonium nitrate) | India | exports | +730% | yes |
| Nitrogen fertilisers (urea, ammonium nitrate) | Saudi Arabia | imports | −12.4% | no |
| Nitrogen fertilisers (urea, ammonium nitrate) | Saudi Arabia | exports | −69.7% | no |
| Nitrogen fertilisers (urea, ammonium nitrate) | UAE | imports | +63.5% | no |
| Nitrogen fertilisers (urea, ammonium nitrate) | UAE | exports | −74.4% | no |
| Nitrogen fertilisers (urea, ammonium nitrate) | Qatar | imports | −87% | no |
| Nitrogen fertilisers (urea, ammonium nitrate) | Qatar | exports | −42.7% | no |
| Nitrogen fertilisers (urea, ammonium nitrate) | Iraq | imports | −80.5% | no |
| Nitrogen fertilisers (urea, ammonium nitrate) | Iraq | exports | – | no |
| Nitrogen fertilisers (urea, ammonium nitrate) | Kuwait | imports | −84% | no |
| Nitrogen fertilisers (urea, ammonium nitrate) | Kuwait | exports | – | no |
| Nitrogen fertilisers (urea, ammonium nitrate) | United States | imports | +33.1% | yes |
| Nitrogen fertilisers (urea, ammonium nitrate) | United States | exports | +76.8% | yes |
Diversion: partner shares, May 2025 to May 2026
Largest move: Japan → Singapore, −100 pp (100% → 0%).
| Share of | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UAE → Japan | imports | 45.2% | 43.1% | −2.1 pp |
| Saudi Arabia → Japan | imports | 36.4% | 40.9% | +4.5 pp |
| Kuwait → Japan | imports | 5.3% | 0.98% | −4.3 pp |
| United States → Japan | imports | 3.5% | 9.1% | +5.6 pp |
| Qatar → Japan | imports | 5.3% | 0.97% | −4.3 pp |
| Japan → Philippines | exports | 0% | 0% | 0 pp |
| Japan → Singapore | exports | 100% | 0% | −100 pp |
| Japan → China | exports | 0% | 100% | +100 pp |
| Japan → Uzbekistan | exports | 0% | 0% | 0 pp |
| Japan → Indonesia | exports | 0% | 0% | 0 pp |
| Russia → India | imports | 31.8% | 40.6% | +8.8 pp |
| Iraq → India | imports | 18.1% | 2.3% | −15.8 pp |
| Saudi Arabia → India | imports | 13.7% | 13% | −0.8 pp |
| UAE → India | imports | 10.1% | 13% | +2.9 pp |
| United States → India | imports | 6.8% | 3.2% | −3.5 pp |
| Canada → United States | imports | 60.1% | 60.9% | +0.8 pp |
| Mexico → United States | imports | 6.6% | 5% | −1.6 pp |
| Saudi Arabia → United States | imports | 4% | 5.7% | +1.8 pp |
| Venezuela → United States | imports | 2.9% | 7.9% | +5 pp |
| Guyana → United States | imports | 4% | 4.4% | +0.4 pp |
| United States → Korea | exports | 12.8% | 12.8% | 0 pp |
| United States → Netherlands | exports | 8.1% | 13.9% | +5.8 pp |
| United States → Canada | exports | 6.3% | 8.9% | +2.6 pp |
| United States → Germany | exports | 6.1% | 9% | +2.8 pp |
| United States → UK | exports | 9.2% | 6.3% | −2.9 pp |
Who gained and lost share of world crude oil exports
Shares of world crude oil exports, May 2025 to May 2026: gained most: United States +2.6 pp; lost most: Saudi Arabia −4.7 pp.
Source: UN Comtrade monthly data, all reporters that filed; mirror rule; lens M (3-month sum against a year earlier). Korea, Jan–Jul 2026: Korea Customs Service, trade by item and country (data.go.kr), fetched 31 Oct 2026.
Who gained and lost share of world natural gas exports
Shares of world natural gas exports, May 2025 to May 2026: gained most: Norway +6.1 pp; lost most: Qatar −6.5 pp.
Source: UN Comtrade monthly data, all reporters that filed; mirror rule; lens M (3-month sum against a year earlier). Korea, Jan–Jul 2026: Korea Customs Service, trade by item and country (data.go.kr), fetched 31 Oct 2026.
Who gained and lost share of world nitrogen fertilisers (urea, ammonium nitrate) exports
Shares of world nitrogen fertilisers (urea, ammonium nitrate) exports, May 2025 to May 2026: gained most: Vietnam +2.9 pp; lost most: Saudi Arabia −5.8 pp.
Source: UN Comtrade monthly data, all reporters that filed; mirror rule; lens M (3-month sum against a year earlier). Korea, Jan–Jul 2026: Korea Customs Service, trade by item and country (data.go.kr), fetched 31 Oct 2026.
Reading the numbers
Documented context for the figures above that run against the event’s headline. The measurements stand as they are; each item cites its sources.
Mar–May 2026 is the first three full months of the closure; Mar–May 2025 a quarter of falling prices. At May 2026, 71 economies had filed (62% of 2024 world exports): Japan, India and the US had, Korea through its customs service, Saudi Arabia to April, Kuwait to December 2024; Iran, the UAE, Qatar and Iraq never do.
- Prices and exchange rates
World crude oil trade −1.0% on a year earlier at May 2026 ($246.2bn → $243.7bn), after −24.6% at May 2025; Japan · imports −17.9% ($16.9bn → $13.9bn), India · imports +1.7% ($43.2bn → $43.9bn). Brent averaged $102 a barrel in March–May 2026 against $68 a year earlier, and the values here are in dollars. In barrels, the IEA has Japan's crude imports down 1.9 mb/d and India's 760 kb/d between February and April 2026, with Gulf output 14.4 mb/d below pre-war levels; METI's April figure for Japan is 66% below a year earlier. [13] [15] [19]
- Substitution
Japan's crude imports by supplier: Saudi Arabia 36.4% → 40.9%, UAE 45.2% → 43.1%, United States 3.5% → 9.1%, Kuwait 5.3% → 0.98%, Qatar 5.3% → 0.97% (May 2025 → May 2026). Only Saudi Arabia and the UAE have pipelines around Hormuz, about 4.7 mb/d of bypass capacity; by late March the East-West line ran at 7 mb/d, with about 5 mb/d of crude loading at Yanbu. The IEA counted Iraq's and Kuwait's crude as locked in. US crude exports reached a record 5.6 mb/d in April, and Japan's intake of US crude a record 331 kb/d in May. [14] [16] [17] [18] [19]
- Substitution
Iraq → India 18.1% → 2.3% of India's crude imports ($7.8bn → $997m); Russia → India 31.8% → 40.6% ($13.7bn → $17.8bn); Iran → India $708m, the whole of Iran · exports +1,730,000% (from $40.9k). Iraq exported about 3.5 mb/d before the war, mostly through Hormuz; around 200 kb/d has gone out via Ceyhan. Russian crude reached a record 2.8 mb/d, 55.5% of India's imports, in July. The Iranian cargoes were India's first since May 2019, bought under OFAC General License U, which covered Iranian oil loaded by 20 March for delivery to 19 April. [20] [21] [22] [23]
- How the data are reported
Saudi Arabia → Taiwan 52.2% → 47.6% of Saudi crude exports; Saudi Arabia · exports −7.3%, grey; Korea 10.2% → 11.2%. Saudi Arabia's monthly filings record crude exports by region, not by country: "Other Asia, nes" (Comtrade partner code 490, $9.7–15.8bn a month since January 2025), which this network maps to Taiwan, beside "Other Europe, nes" and "North America and Central America, nes". Its May 2026 filing is missing, so the sum at t has two months of it; the rest is read from the importers' reports, Korea's from its customs service. [24]
Partner shares, economy by economy
Each named economy’s five largest partners over the window, in fixed colours, with the rest as Other. The table gives the change in percentage points between May 2025 and May 2026.
Not drawn, too small or erratic to read month by month: India (crude oil exports), Qatar (crude oil imports), UAE (natural gas imports), Kuwait (natural gas imports) and Kuwait (nitrogen fertilisers (urea, ammonium nitrate) imports).
Japan: crude oil imports by supplier
UAE: 45.2% in May 2025, 43.1% in May 2026 (−2.1 pp).
Source: UN Comtrade monthly data, all reporters that filed; mirror rule; lens M (3-month sum against a year earlier). Korea, Jan–Jul 2026: Korea Customs Service, trade by item and country (data.go.kr), fetched 31 Oct 2026.
Japan: crude oil exports by destination
Philippines: 0% in May 2025, 0% in May 2026 (0 pp).
Source: UN Comtrade monthly data, all reporters that filed; mirror rule; lens M (3-month sum against a year earlier). Korea, Jan–Jul 2026: Korea Customs Service, trade by item and country (data.go.kr), fetched 31 Oct 2026.
India: crude oil imports by supplier
Russia: 31.8% in May 2025, 40.6% in May 2026 (+8.8 pp).
Source: UN Comtrade monthly data, all reporters that filed; mirror rule; lens M (3-month sum against a year earlier). Korea, Jan–Jul 2026: Korea Customs Service, trade by item and country (data.go.kr), fetched 31 Oct 2026.
Saudi Arabia: crude oil exports by destination
Taiwan: 52.3% in May 2025, 47.6% in May 2026 (−4.7 pp).
Source: UN Comtrade monthly data, all reporters that filed; mirror rule; lens M (3-month sum against a year earlier). Korea, Jan–Jul 2026: Korea Customs Service, trade by item and country (data.go.kr), fetched 31 Oct 2026.
Exports as the partners report them: Saudi Arabia has not filed these months.
UAE: crude oil imports by supplier
South Sudan: 48.5% in May 2025, 0% in May 2026 (−48.5 pp).
Source: UN Comtrade monthly data, all reporters that filed; mirror rule; lens M (3-month sum against a year earlier). Korea, Jan–Jul 2026: Korea Customs Service, trade by item and country (data.go.kr), fetched 31 Oct 2026.
UAE: crude oil exports by destination
Japan: 35.5% in May 2025, 28% in May 2026 (−7.5 pp).
Source: UN Comtrade monthly data, all reporters that filed; mirror rule; lens M (3-month sum against a year earlier). Korea, Jan–Jul 2026: Korea Customs Service, trade by item and country (data.go.kr), fetched 31 Oct 2026.
Exports as the partners report them: UAE has not filed these months.
Qatar: crude oil exports by destination
Korea: 27% in May 2025, 27.8% in May 2026 (+0.8 pp).
Source: UN Comtrade monthly data, all reporters that filed; mirror rule; lens M (3-month sum against a year earlier). Korea, Jan–Jul 2026: Korea Customs Service, trade by item and country (data.go.kr), fetched 31 Oct 2026.
Exports as the partners report them: Qatar has not filed these months.
Iraq: crude oil exports by destination
India: 54.1% in May 2025, 19% in May 2026 (−35 pp).
Source: UN Comtrade monthly data, all reporters that filed; mirror rule; lens M (3-month sum against a year earlier). Korea, Jan–Jul 2026: Korea Customs Service, trade by item and country (data.go.kr), fetched 31 Oct 2026.
Exports as the partners report them: Iraq has not filed these months.
Kuwait: crude oil exports by destination
Korea: 27.5% in May 2025, 28.9% in May 2026 (+1.4 pp).
Source: UN Comtrade monthly data, all reporters that filed; mirror rule; lens M (3-month sum against a year earlier). Korea, Jan–Jul 2026: Korea Customs Service, trade by item and country (data.go.kr), fetched 31 Oct 2026.
Exports as the partners report them: Kuwait has not filed these months.
United States: crude oil imports by supplier
Canada: 60.1% in May 2025, 60.9% in May 2026 (+0.8 pp).
Source: UN Comtrade monthly data, all reporters that filed; mirror rule; lens M (3-month sum against a year earlier). Korea, Jan–Jul 2026: Korea Customs Service, trade by item and country (data.go.kr), fetched 31 Oct 2026.
United States: crude oil exports by destination
Korea: 12.8% in May 2025, 12.8% in May 2026 (0 pp).
Source: UN Comtrade monthly data, all reporters that filed; mirror rule; lens M (3-month sum against a year earlier). Korea, Jan–Jul 2026: Korea Customs Service, trade by item and country (data.go.kr), fetched 31 Oct 2026.
Timeline
- US and Israel strike Iran; tanker traffic through Hormuz stops [2]
- Two-week ceasefire; Iran to let ships through the strait [4]
- US naval blockade of Iran's ports takes effect [5]
- US and Iranian presidents sign a memorandum to end the war [7]
- Truce collapses: US strikes after Iran hits three ships [8]
- US announces it will reinstate the blockade [9]
- Houthis take Mokha and Perim at Bab al-Mandab [10]
- Iran says seven tankers hit in Hormuz; the US disputes it [11]
What else changed
The Bab al-Mandab crisis from September 2026 is listed here as part of the Iran war. It hits the route of the Red Sea attacks (event 9), which began in November 2023 and are still listed as ongoing: from September 2026 the two events overlap on that route.
World exports of crude oil changed +16.8% between May 2025 and May 2026. May 2026 is a partial month: the economies that had filed held 75% of 2024 world exports.
Other events in the same window:
- US sets reciprocal tariffs, China curbs rare-earth exports · 2 Apr 2025 – ongoing
- Twelve-Day War: Israel and the US strike Iran · 13 Jun 2025 – 24 Jun 2025
Values are in US dollars: prices and exchange rates move them as well as volumes, and this page does not separate them. None of the numbers here says why trade moved.
Documented context for the figures that run against the headline is in “Reading the numbers”, with sources.
Coverage
Who has filed
72 economies had filed May 2026, 75% of 2024 world exports. Not yet filed for the latest months on the charts (to Jul 2026): Saudi Arabia (exports, imports), UAE (imports, exports), Qatar (imports, exports), Iraq (exports, imports) and Kuwait (exports, imports). In the current store China’s monthly files end in Dec 2024; after that its trade is seen only through its partners’ reports. Korea’s months from Jan 2026 come from the Korea Customs Service.
Sources
- Oil price jumps after Qatar minister warns all Gulf production could stop · BBC News · 6 Mar 2026
- Oil Market Report - March 2026 · International Energy Agency · 12 Mar 2026
- Gulf smelter cuts tighten aluminium outlook · ING Think · 16 Mar 2026
- What we know about the US and Iran's ceasefire deal · BBC News · 8 Apr 2026
- US naval blockade of Iran takes effect as Trump's deadline passes · The Times of Israel · 13 Apr 2026
- Fertilizer prices surge as Strait of Hormuz disruptions tighten supplies · World Bank Data Blog · 14 May 2026
- Trump, Iran's president sign deal to end West Asia war · AFP (Deccan Chronicle) · 18 Jun 2026
- US and Iran threaten return to war after fiercest exchange of fire since truce · The Guardian · 8 Jul 2026
- Why did the US-Iran ceasefire collapse? · The Indian Express · 19 Jul 2026
- Iran war: Saudi-Houthi escalation intensifies Yemen conflict · Deutsche Welle · 11 Sep 2026
- Iran says seven ships hit in Hormuz Strait, warns US of wider response · Al Jazeera · 22 Oct 2026
- Energy markets are adapting to the Iran war as a 'forever conflict' · Fortune · 23 Oct 2026
- Global price of Brent Crude (POILBREUSDM, IMF Primary Commodity Prices) · FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis · no date; accessed 25 Oct 2026
- Oil Market Report - April 2026 · International Energy Agency · 14 Apr 2026
- Oil Market Report - May 2026 · International Energy Agency · 13 May 2026
- U.S. exports of crude oil and petroleum products reached record in April · US Energy Information Administration, Today in Energy · 8 Jul 2026
- World Oil Transit Chokepoints · US Energy Information Administration · 3 Mar 2026
- Saudi pipeline to bypass Hormuz hits 7 million barrel goal · Bloomberg (via Fortune) · 28 Mar 2026
- US oil supplies help offset falling Middle Eastern imports to Japan · Reuters (via Baird Maritime) · 30 Jun 2026
- Iran-related General License U: Authorizing the Delivery and Sale of Crude Oil and Petroleum Products of Iranian-Origin Loaded on Vessels as of March 20, 2026 · US Department of the Treasury, Office of Foreign Assets Control · 20 Mar 2026
- India Resumes Iranian Oil Imports After Seven-Year Hiatus · Reuters (via MarineLink) · 6 Apr 2026
- Iraq and Turkey strike a 1-year oil pipeline deal to boost exports during ongoing Hormuz closures · Associated Press (via WTOP) · 1 Aug 2026
- India's Russian crude imports hit record for second straight month · PTI (via DT Next), citing CREA · 10 Aug 2026
- Partner areas reference table (partnerAreas.json) · UN Comtrade · no date; accessed 25 Oct 2026