Event 11 · War
Twelve-Day War: Israel and the US strike Iran
Israel struck Iran's nuclear and military sites on 13 June 2025 and the US bombed three nuclear sites on 22 June; a ceasefire took effect on 24 June. Oil prices spiked mid-month and returned to pre-conflict levels after the ceasefire.
- 13 Jun 2025 – 24 Jun 2025dates
- 4economies named
- 3products watched
- 16sources
Before and after
Crude oil, Jul 2025 against Jul 2024, lens M (3-month sum against a year earlier). Economies are coloured by the change in their trade; the economies the event names have a dashed ring.
Loading the network…
What to watch A short test: Gulf crude and LNG flows to the importers should barely move in monthly values, since prices were back to pre-conflict levels within weeks; a contrast with 2026.
Measured, not asserted
Changes on a year earlier and in partner shares between Jul 2024 and Jul 2025. They say what moved in the window, not why it moved.
World trade in crude oil: change on a year earlier
World trade in crude oil, lens M (3-month sum against a year earlier): +8.4% in Jul 2024 (the base), −26.3% in Jul 2025. Lowest since the base: −31.2% in Feb 2025.
Source: UN Comtrade monthly data, all reporters that filed; mirror rule; lens M (3-month sum against a year earlier). Korea, Jan 2026: Korea Customs Service, trade by item and country (data.go.kr), fetched 31 Oct 2026.
The named economies’ crude oil trade, Jul 2025 against a year earlier
Largest fall: Israel exports −45%; largest rise: United States exports −21.2%.
| Share of | Filed | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crude oil | Iran | exports | +531,000% | no |
| Crude oil | Israel | exports | −45% | yes |
| Crude oil | United States | imports | −23.5% | yes |
| Crude oil | United States | exports | −21.2% | yes |
| Crude oil | Qatar | imports | – | no |
| Crude oil | Qatar | exports | −38.9% | no |
| Natural gas | Iran | imports | – | no |
| Natural gas | Iran | exports | +4.9% | no |
| Natural gas | Israel | imports | – | yes |
| Natural gas | Israel | exports | −30.2% | yes |
| Natural gas | United States | imports | +55.1% | yes |
| Natural gas | United States | exports | +30% | yes |
| Natural gas | Qatar | imports | +39,300% | no |
| Natural gas | Qatar | exports | −36.3% | no |
| All goods | Iran | imports | −47.1% | no |
| All goods | Iran | exports | −25.8% | no |
| All goods | Israel | imports | +8.3% | yes |
| All goods | Israel | exports | −19.5% | yes |
| All goods | United States | imports | +0.6% | yes |
| All goods | United States | exports | +3.8% | yes |
| All goods | Qatar | imports | +17.4% | no |
| All goods | Qatar | exports | −33.8% | no |
Diversion: partner shares, Jul 2024 to Jul 2025
Largest move: Israel → Netherlands, −17.7 pp (100% → 82.3%).
| Share of | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel → Netherlands | exports | 100% | 82.3% | −17.7 pp |
| Israel → France | exports | 0% | 0% | 0 pp |
| Israel → Switzerland | exports | 0% | 0% | 0 pp |
| Israel → Germany | exports | 0% | 17.7% | +17.7 pp |
| Israel → Italy | exports | 0% | 0% | 0 pp |
| Canada → United States | imports | 58.1% | 58.5% | +0.5 pp |
| Mexico → United States | imports | 6.9% | 6.2% | −0.7 pp |
| Saudi Arabia → United States | imports | 5% | 5.1% | +0.1 pp |
| Brazil → United States | imports | 3.9% | 4.8% | +0.9 pp |
| Colombia → United States | imports | 3.1% | 3.6% | +0.4 pp |
| United States → Korea | exports | 14.6% | 13.2% | −1.4 pp |
| United States → Netherlands | exports | 8.4% | 7.4% | −1 pp |
| United States → Canada | exports | 9.2% | 9.9% | +0.7 pp |
| United States → UK | exports | 8.9% | 7.2% | −1.7 pp |
| United States → Germany | exports | 7.1% | 5.7% | −1.5 pp |
Who gained and lost share of world crude oil exports
Shares of world crude oil exports, Jul 2024 to Jul 2025: gained most: Saudi Arabia +9 pp; lost most: Russia −4.3 pp.
Source: UN Comtrade monthly data, all reporters that filed; mirror rule; lens M (3-month sum against a year earlier). Korea, Jan 2026: Korea Customs Service, trade by item and country (data.go.kr), fetched 31 Oct 2026.
Who gained and lost share of world natural gas exports
Shares of world natural gas exports, Jul 2024 to Jul 2025: gained most: United States +6.6 pp; lost most: Turkmenistan −3.2 pp.
Source: UN Comtrade monthly data, all reporters that filed; mirror rule; lens M (3-month sum against a year earlier). Korea, Jan 2026: Korea Customs Service, trade by item and country (data.go.kr), fetched 31 Oct 2026.
Who gained and lost share of world all goods exports
Shares of world all goods exports, Jul 2024 to Jul 2025: gained most: Hong Kong +1.9 pp; lost most: China −2.4 pp.
Source: UN Comtrade monthly data, all reporters that filed; mirror rule; lens M (3-month sum against a year earlier). Korea, Jan 2026: Korea Customs Service, trade by item and country (data.go.kr), fetched 31 Oct 2026.
Reading the numbers
Documented context for the figures above that run against the event’s headline. The measurements stand as they are; each item cites its sources.
May–Jul 2025 against May–Jul 2024 holds the twelve days of war inside a quarter in which Brent averaged $68 against $83 a year earlier and China's filings were absent. The IEA: Dated "briefly surpassing $80/bbl before returning to pre-conflict levels after a ceasefire accord", no impact on Iranian flows, and supply up 950 kb/d in June, led by Saudi Arabia, after OPEC+ added 411 kb/d for June and for July.
- How the data are reported
Saudi Arabia: 13.6% → 22.6% of world crude oil exports (+9.0 pp); Saudi Arabia → Taiwan: none in May–Jul 2024, $31.1bn in May–Jul 2025 (94.4% of Taiwan's imports). Saudi Arabia's filings name no buyer for crude. To December 2024 all of it went to "Areas, nes"; from January 2025 about four-fifths goes to "Other Asia, nes" (area 490), which this site reads as Taiwan. UN Statistics says the code holds Taiwan's trade "except for several countries (such as Saudi Arabia, which report all of their exports to unknown countries)". The EIA puts Taiwan's 2025 crude and condensate imports at 794,000 b/d. [5] [6] [7]
- How the data are reported
World crude oil trade −26.3% ($319.4bn → $235.5bn); China's imports −$70.9bn (−86.1%); Russia 9.6% → 5.3% and Iraq 7.4% → 5.3% of world exports. China's monthly filings end in December 2024 in this store. The $82.3bn of crude it took in May–Jul 2024, 25.8% of world trade, came nearly half from economies that had not filed May–Jul 2025 (Russia, Iraq, Oman, UAE, Kuwait, Qatar) and $13.4bn from Saudi Arabia, whose filings name no buyer, so those flows vanish at t. China's customs counted 12.14 million b/d of crude imports in June 2025, the most since August 2023. [8]
- How the data are reported
Iran · crude exports +531000.0% ($21.0k → $111.5m), drawn grey; the partner chart is not drawn. Iran has filed no monthly return since March 2010, so its exports here are its buyers' reports: $21k entered by Uzbekistan at base against $112m entered by India for June 2025. China "has officially not imported Iranian crude since 2022", while its customs data "regularly shows more Malaysia-sourced oil than the Southeast Asian country actually produces"; Kpler counted 1.37 million b/d of Iranian-origin crude into China in January–October 2025. [9]
- Product definition
Israel → Netherlands 100.0% → 82.3% and Israel → Germany 0.0% → 17.6% of Israel's crude exports, the two largest diversion bars; Israel · crude exports −45.0% ($131m → $72m). Israel's crude exports date from February 2023, when Energean first sold condensate, a by-product of gas production, from the Karish field abroad through Vitol. The figures here are the Dutch and German import reports; Israel's own filings record crude exports only in November–December 2024. The Energy Ministry shut Karish and Leviathan from 13 June 2025 and authorised restarts on 24–25 June; the series was −28.1% on a year earlier in Mar–May 2025. [10] [11] [12]
Partner shares, economy by economy
Each named economy’s five largest partners over the window, in fixed colours, with the rest as Other. The table gives the change in percentage points between Jul 2024 and Jul 2025.
Not drawn, too small or erratic to read month by month: Iran (crude oil exports), Qatar (crude oil imports) and Iran (natural gas imports).
Israel: crude oil exports by destination
Netherlands: 100% in Jul 2024, 82.3% in Jul 2025 (−17.7 pp).
Source: UN Comtrade monthly data, all reporters that filed; mirror rule; lens M (3-month sum against a year earlier). Korea, Jan 2026: Korea Customs Service, trade by item and country (data.go.kr), fetched 31 Oct 2026.
United States: crude oil imports by supplier
Canada: 58.1% in Jul 2024, 58.5% in Jul 2025 (+0.5 pp).
Source: UN Comtrade monthly data, all reporters that filed; mirror rule; lens M (3-month sum against a year earlier). Korea, Jan 2026: Korea Customs Service, trade by item and country (data.go.kr), fetched 31 Oct 2026.
United States: crude oil exports by destination
Korea: 14.6% in Jul 2024, 13.2% in Jul 2025 (−1.4 pp).
Source: UN Comtrade monthly data, all reporters that filed; mirror rule; lens M (3-month sum against a year earlier). Korea, Jan 2026: Korea Customs Service, trade by item and country (data.go.kr), fetched 31 Oct 2026.
Qatar: crude oil exports by destination
Korea: 26% in Jul 2024, 22% in Jul 2025 (−4 pp).
Source: UN Comtrade monthly data, all reporters that filed; mirror rule; lens M (3-month sum against a year earlier). Korea, Jan 2026: Korea Customs Service, trade by item and country (data.go.kr), fetched 31 Oct 2026.
Exports as the partners report them: Qatar has not filed these months.
Timeline
- Israel strikes Iran's nuclear and military sites [1]
- Israel orders the Karish and Leviathan gas fields shut; restarts authorised on 24–25 June [11]
- US bombs Fordo, Natanz and Isfahan (Tehran time) [2]
- Iran fires missiles at a US base in Qatar [3]
- Ceasefire takes effect [3]
- IEA: oil prices back to pre-conflict levels [4]
What else changed
World exports of crude oil changed −25.3% between Jul 2024 and Jul 2025. Jul 2025 is a partial month: the economies that had filed held 84% of 2024 world exports.
Other events in the same window:
- China licenses exports of gallium, germanium and graphite · 1 Aug 2023 – ongoing
- Houthi attacks in the Red Sea send ships around the Cape · 19 Nov 2023 – ongoing
- US sets reciprocal tariffs, China curbs rare-earth exports · 2 Apr 2025 – ongoing
Values are in US dollars: prices and exchange rates move them as well as volumes, and this page does not separate them. None of the numbers here says why trade moved.
Documented context for the figures that run against the headline is in “Reading the numbers”, with sources.
Coverage
Who has filed
94 economies had filed Jul 2025, 84% of 2024 world exports. Not yet filed for the latest months on the charts (to Jan 2026): Iran (exports, imports) and Qatar (imports, exports). In the current store China’s monthly files end in Dec 2024; after that its trade is seen only through its partners’ reports. Korea’s months from Jan 2026 come from the Korea Customs Service.
Sources
- What we know as Israel-Iran conflict intensifies · BBC News · 13 Jun 2025
- What we know about US air strikes on three Iranian nuclear sites · BBC News · 22 Jun 2025
- Trump is not happy with Israel after saying it and Iran both broke a ceasefire · NPR (Michigan Public) · 24 Jun 2025
- Oil Market Report - July 2025 · International Energy Agency · 11 Jul 2025
- UN Comtrade reference tables: partner areas (partnerAreas.json) · UN Comtrade (UN Statistics Division) · no date; accessed 25 Oct 2026
- Unveiling structure and dynamics of global digital production technology networks (UNU-MERIT Working Paper 2023-044), footnote 12 quoting UN Statistics (2021) on code 490 · A. Andreoni, G. Anzolin, M. Labrunie, D. Sartorello Spinola; UNU-MERIT, via EconStor · no date; accessed 25 Oct 2026
- Taiwan (Country Analysis Brief) · US Energy Information Administration · 2 Apr 2026
- China's surplus crude oil surges in June, giving refiners options (Clyde Russell) · Reuters, via Hydrocarbon Processing · 16 Jul 2025
- Are surging Chinese imports of Indonesia oil rebranded Iranian crude? · Reuters, via Baird Maritime · 24 Nov 2025
- Energean begins exports from Israel of gas-byproduct condensate · Reuters, via Kitco News · 14 Feb 2023
- Energean instructed to halt production through offshore Israel FPSO · Offshore Magazine · 14 Jun 2025
- Israel lifts suspension of offshore gas operations · Offshore Magazine · 25 Jun 2025
- Global price of Brent Crude (POILBREUSDM, IMF Primary Commodity Prices) · FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis · no date; accessed 25 Oct 2026
- Oil Market Report - June 2025 · International Energy Agency · 17 Jun 2025
- OPEC+ countries agree production adjustment of 411,000 barrels per day in July 2025 · ANI/WAM, via The Tribune (copy of the OPEC statement of 31 May 2025) · 31 May 2025
- OPEC+ will accelerate oil output in July 2025 with a targeted hike of 411 kb/d · Enerdata · 3 Jun 2025