Case 3 · Events 1, 6
Is trade splitting along geopolitical lines, and are “connector” economies bridging the blocs or just relabelling Chinese goods?
Since the war in Ukraine, trade and FDI between geopolitically distant blocs fell relative to flows within blocs, “roughly 12% and 20%, respectively”; “nonaligned ‘connector’ countries are rapidly gaining importance”.
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In US tariff-line import data, “China’s share of US imports fell from 22 to 16 percent” between 2017 and 2022, and the paper shows that the decline is due to US tariffs.
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Of six Asian connectors, only Vietnam shows clear evidence: “Vietnam appears to have benefited from trade reallocation, with increased domestic content in its exports to the US”, instead of significant transshipment of Chinese exports.
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Firm-level supplier data show chains from China to the US lengthening, “where firms from other jurisdictions, notably in Asia, have interposed themselves in the supply chain”.
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Between 2017 and 2023 the quarter-on-quarter change in trade volumes “was 2.5% lower on average between geopolitically distant countries relative to those that were closer”.
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The papers’ questions measured again on UN Comtrade records. Each reading below is written from these numbers, not from the papers.
Trade between West (narrow bloc) and East (narrow bloc): 1.6% of world trade in 1990, 9.3% in 2024. Peak: 11.9% in 2021.
| 1990 | 47.3% | 0% | 1.6% |
| 1991 | 46.7% | 0% | 2% |
| 1992 | 46.1% | 0.16% | 3.7% |
| 1993 | 42.6% | 0.21% | 4.2% |
| 1994 | 42.9% | 0.13% | 4.4% |
| 1995 | 43.1% | 0.12% | 4.3% |
| 1996 | 42.5% | 0.24% | 4.3% |
| 1997 | 41.8% | 0.22% | 4.5% |
| 1998 | 44.8% | 0.27% | 4.7% |
| 1999 | 44.1% | 0.22% | 4.9% |
| 2000 | 41.2% | 0.27% | 5.5% |
| 2001 | 42% | 0.33% | 6.1% |
| 2002 | 41.9% | 0.35% | 6.8% |
| 2003 | 42% | 0.37% | 7.4% |
| 2004 | 40.6% | 0.42% | 8.1% |
| 2005 | 38.9% | 0.4% | 8.7% |
| 2006 | 37.9% | 0.45% | 9.3% |
| 2007 | 37.6% | 0.54% | 9.7% |
| 2008 | 35.3% | 0.62% | 9.8% |
| 2009 | 34.8% | 0.58% | 10.4% |
| 2010 | 31.6% | 0.66% | 11% |
| 2011 | 30.7% | 0.77% | 10.9% |
| 2012 | 29.1% | 0.79% | 10.7% |
| 2013 | 29.6% | 0.74% | 11.1% |
| 2014 | 30.1% | 0.72% | 11.3% |
| 2015 | 30.5% | 0.62% | 11.4% |
| 2016 | 31.3% | 0.7% | 11.2% |
| 2017 | 30.2% | 0.79% | 11.4% |
| 2018 | 30.3% | 0.8% | 11.3% |
| 2019 | 30.4% | 0.85% | 11% |
| 2020 | 30.4% | 0.86% | 11.7% |
| 2021 | 29.3% | 0.87% | 11.9% |
| 2022 | 29% | 0.81% | 10.9% |
| 2023 | 30.3% | 1.1% | 9.6% |
| 2024 | 29.4% | 1.1% | 9.3% |
Trade between West (narrow bloc) and East (narrow bloc): 11.3% of world trade in Jan 2018, 9.3% in Dec 2024. Peak: 12.2% in Mar 2021.
| Jan 2018 | 30.3% | 0.78% | 11.3% |
| Feb 2018 | 30.4% | 0.79% | 11.4% |
| Mar 2018 | 30.6% | 0.79% | 11.4% |
| Apr 2018 | 30.7% | 0.79% | 11.4% |
| May 2018 | 30.7% | 0.79% | 11.4% |
| Jun 2018 | 30.8% | 0.79% | 11.4% |
| Jul 2018 | 30.7% | 0.79% | 11.3% |
| Aug 2018 | 30.6% | 0.78% | 11.4% |
| Sep 2018 | 30.5% | 0.79% | 11.3% |
| Oct 2018 | 30.5% | 0.8% | 11.4% |
| Nov 2018 | 30.4% | 0.8% | 11.4% |
| Dec 2018 | 30.4% | 0.8% | 11.3% |
| Jan 2019 | 30.4% | 0.81% | 11.3% |
| Feb 2019 | 30.4% | 0.81% | 11.3% |
| Mar 2019 | 30.4% | 0.81% | 11.2% |
| Apr 2019 | 30.4% | 0.82% | 11.2% |
| May 2019 | 30.4% | 0.82% | 11.2% |
| Jun 2019 | 30.4% | 0.83% | 11.2% |
| Jul 2019 | 30.4% | 0.83% | 11.1% |
| Aug 2019 | 30.4% | 0.83% | 11.1% |
| Sep 2019 | 30.5% | 0.84% | 11.1% |
| Oct 2019 | 30.6% | 0.84% | 11% |
| Nov 2019 | 30.6% | 0.84% | 11% |
| Dec 2019 | 30.6% | 0.85% | 11% |
| Jan 2020 | 30.7% | 0.86% | 10.9% |
| Feb 2020 | 30.7% | 0.87% | 10.8% |
| Mar 2020 | 30.7% | 0.87% | 10.8% |
| Apr 2020 | 30.5% | 0.87% | 10.9% |
| May 2020 | 30.4% | 0.88% | 11% |
| Jun 2020 | 30.4% | 0.88% | 11.2% |
| Jul 2020 | 30.5% | 0.89% | 11.3% |
| Aug 2020 | 30.6% | 0.89% | 11.3% |
| Sep 2020 | 30.6% | 0.89% | 11.4% |
| Oct 2020 | 30.6% | 0.89% | 11.5% |
| Nov 2020 | 30.7% | 0.88% | 11.6% |
| Dec 2020 | 30.7% | 0.87% | 11.7% |
| Jan 2021 | 30.6% | 0.86% | 11.8% |
| Feb 2021 | 30.5% | 0.86% | 12% |
| Mar 2021 | 30.4% | 0.87% | 12.2% |
| Apr 2021 | 30.5% | 0.87% | 12.2% |
| May 2021 | 30.5% | 0.86% | 12.1% |
| Jun 2021 | 30.5% | 0.86% | 12% |
| Jul 2021 | 30.3% | 0.85% | 11.9% |
| Aug 2021 | 30.1% | 0.86% | 11.9% |
| Sep 2021 | 30% | 0.86% | 12% |
| Oct 2021 | 29.8% | 0.87% | 11.9% |
| Nov 2021 | 29.7% | 0.88% | 11.9% |
| Dec 2021 | 29.5% | 0.89% | 11.9% |
| Jan 2022 | 29.4% | 0.87% | 12% |
| Feb 2022 | 29.4% | 0.86% | 12% |
| Mar 2022 | 29.4% | 0.85% | 11.9% |
| Apr 2022 | 29.4% | 0.83% | 11.8% |
| May 2022 | 29.4% | 0.83% | 11.7% |
| Jun 2022 | 29.3% | 0.82% | 11.6% |
| Jul 2022 | 29.2% | 0.82% | 11.5% |
| Aug 2022 | 29.2% | 0.83% | 11.4% |
| Sep 2022 | 29.1% | 0.83% | 11.3% |
| Oct 2022 | 29.1% | 0.84% | 11.2% |
| Nov 2022 | 29.2% | 0.84% | 11.1% |
| Dec 2022 | 29.3% | 0.84% | 10.9% |
| Jan 2023 | 29.6% | 0.84% | 10.7% |
| Feb 2023 | 29.7% | 0.85% | 10.6% |
| Mar 2023 | 29.7% | 0.88% | 10.4% |
| Apr 2023 | 29.8% | 0.92% | 10.3% |
| May 2023 | 30% | 0.95% | 10.3% |
| Jun 2023 | 30.2% | 0.99% | 10.2% |
| Jul 2023 | 30.4% | 1% | 10.1% |
| Aug 2023 | 30.6% | 1% | 9.9% |
| Sep 2023 | 30.7% | 1% | 9.8% |
| Oct 2023 | 30.7% | 1.1% | 9.8% |
| Nov 2023 | 30.8% | 1.1% | 9.7% |
| Dec 2023 | 30.8% | 1.1% | 9.6% |
| Jan 2024 | 30.6% | 1.1% | 9.5% |
| Feb 2024 | 30.6% | 1.1% | 9.5% |
| Mar 2024 | 30.5% | 1.1% | 9.5% |
| Apr 2024 | 30.5% | 1.1% | 9.4% |
| May 2024 | 30.4% | 1.1% | 9.4% |
| Jun 2024 | 30.3% | 1.1% | 9.4% |
| Jul 2024 | 30.2% | 1.1% | 9.4% |
| Aug 2024 | 30% | 1.1% | 9.4% |
| Sep 2024 | 30% | 1.1% | 9.4% |
| Oct 2024 | 30% | 1.1% | 9.4% |
| Nov 2024 | 29.9% | 1.1% | 9.4% |
| Dec 2024 | 29.8% | 1.1% | 9.3% |
China’s share of United States’ all goods imports: 19.7% in 2013, 13.8% in 2024.
| 2013 | 19.7% | 12.2% | 1.1% | 14.5% | 1.7% | 2.8% | 48% | – | −0.3% | yes |
| 2014 | 20.2% | 12.3% | 1.3% | 14.7% | 1.7% | 3% | 46.8% | +0.4 pp | +3.6% | yes |
| 2015 | 21.8% | 12.9% | 1.7% | 13.1% | 1.8% | 3.2% | 45.5% | +1.6 pp | −4% | yes |
| 2016 | 21.4% | 13.2% | 1.9% | 12.6% | 1.8% | 3.2% | 45.9% | −0.4 pp | −2.9% | yes |
| 2017 | 21.9% | 13.1% | 2% | 12.7% | 1.8% | 3.1% | 45.4% | +0.4 pp | +7% | yes |
| 2018 | 21.6% | 13.4% | 2% | 12.5% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 45.9% | −0.3 pp | +8.6% | yes |
| 2019 | 18.4% | 14.1% | 2.7% | 12.7% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 46.8% | −3.2 pp | −1.7% | yes |
| 2020 | 19% | 13.7% | 3.5% | 11.5% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 46.5% | +0.6 pp | −6.3% | yes |
| 2021 | 18.5% | 13.2% | 3.7% | 12.4% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 46.1% | −0.6 pp | +21.9% | yes |
| 2022 | 17.1% | 13.6% | 4% | 13.2% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 45.6% | −1.4 pp | +15% | yes |
| 2023 | 14.1% | 15.2% | 3.8% | 13.6% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 46.8% | −2.9 pp | −6.1% | yes |
| 2024 | 13.8% | 15.2% | 4.2% | 12.6% | 3.5% | 4% | 46.7% | −0.4 pp | +5.9% | yes |
China’s share of United States’ all goods imports: 21.9% in 2017, 17.1% in 2022 (−4.8 pp).
| United States | China | 21.9% | 17.1% | −4.8 pp |
Largest gain in share of United States’ imports, 2013–2017 to 2018–2023: Vietnam, +1.6 pp (its share of China’s exports +1 pp).
→ Change in share of United States’ imports↑ Change in share of China’s exports
| Vietnam | +1.6 pp | +1 pp | 3.3% |
| Japan | −0.8 pp | −1.3 pp | 5.1% |
| Hong Kong | −0.1 pp | −2 pp | 0.2% |
| Mexico | +1.1 pp | +0.2 pp | 13.9% |
| Taiwan | +0.7 pp | +0.3 pp | 2.5% |
| Canada | −0.9 pp | −0.1 pp | 12.6% |
| Germany | −0.3 pp | +0.6 pp | 4.9% |
| Saudi Arabia | −0.8 pp | +0.1 pp | 0.6% |
| Ireland | +0.8 pp | +0.1 pp | 2.5% |
| Venezuela | −0.8 pp | −0.1 pp | 0.13% |
| Switzerland | +0.6 pp | +0.1 pp | 2% |
| India | +0.5 pp | +0.2 pp | 2.5% |
| UAE | +0.1 pp | +0.6 pp | 0.19% |
| Korea | +0.3 pp | +0.3 pp | 3.3% |
| Thailand | +0.4 pp | +0.2 pp | 1.6% |
| Poland | +0.1 pp | +0.4 pp | 0.36% |
| Indonesia | 0 pp | +0.4 pp | 0.92% |
| Netherlands | +0.3 pp | +0.1 pp | 1.2% |
| Israel | −0.3 pp | +0.1 pp | 0.71% |
| Malaysia | +0.3 pp | +0.2 pp | 1.7% |
| Russia | −0.2 pp | +0.2 pp | 0.69% |
| Singapore | +0.3 pp | −0.1 pp | 1.1% |
| Czechia | 0 pp | +0.3 pp | 0.23% |
| Italy | +0.3 pp | +0.1 pp | 2.2% |
| UK | −0.2 pp | +0.1 pp | 2.2% |
| Philippines | 0 pp | +0.3 pp | 0.49% |
| Cambodia | +0.2 pp | +0.1 pp | 0.29% |
| Spain | +0.1 pp | +0.2 pp | 0.7% |
| Australia | 0 pp | +0.2 pp | 0.47% |
| Kuwait | −0.3 pp | 0 pp | 0.05% |
| Türkiye | +0.2 pp | −0.1 pp | 0.51% |
| Iraq | −0.2 pp | +0.1 pp | 0.27% |
| Bangladesh | 0 pp | +0.2 pp | 0.28% |
| Brazil | −0.1 pp | +0.2 pp | 1.2% |
| Angola | −0.2 pp | −0.1 pp | 0.05% |
| Colombia | −0.2 pp | 0 pp | 0.53% |
| France | −0.1 pp | +0.1 pp | 1.9% |
| Algeria | −0.1 pp | −0.1 pp | 0.09% |
| Nigeria | −0.1 pp | +0.1 pp | 0.15% |
| Slovakia | +0.1 pp | 0 pp | 0.2% |
| Austria | +0.1 pp | +0.1 pp | 0.54% |
| South Africa | +0.1 pp | 0 pp | 0.42% |
| Slovenia | 0 pp | +0.1 pp | 0.07% |
| Egypt | 0 pp | +0.1 pp | 0.1% |
| Hungary | 0 pp | +0.1 pp | 0.24% |
| Ecuador | −0.1 pp | 0 pp | 0.29% |
| Sweden | +0.1 pp | 0 pp | 0.52% |
| Panama | 0 pp | −0.1 pp | 0.02% |
| Uzbekistan | 0 pp | +0.1 pp | 0% |
| North Korea | 0 pp | −0.1 pp | 0% |
| Portugal | 0 pp | +0.1 pp | 0.18% |
| Denmark | +0.1 pp | 0 pp | 0.41% |
| Ukraine | 0 pp | +0.1 pp | 0.05% |
| Trinidad and Tobago | −0.1 pp | 0 pp | 0.14% |
| Chile | 0 pp | 0 pp | 0.49% |
| Argentina | 0 pp | −0.1 pp | 0.2% |
| Ethiopia | 0 pp | −0.1 pp | 0.02% |
| Romania | 0 pp | +0.1 pp | 0.11% |
| Greece | 0 pp | +0.1 pp | 0.07% |
| Costa Rica | −0.1 pp | 0 pp | 0.25% |
Largest gain in share of United States’ imports, 2013–2017 to 2018–2023: Vietnam, +19.1 pp (its share of China’s exports +4.5 pp).
→ Change in share of United States’ imports↑ Change in share of China’s exports
| Vietnam | +19.1 pp | +4.5 pp | 22.6% |
| Japan | −3 pp | −11.8 pp | 5.3% |
| Thailand | +10 pp | +0.6 pp | 12.9% |
| Taiwan | −5.1 pp | −1.7 pp | 1.8% |
| Mexico | −5.7 pp | −0.7 pp | 2.8% |
| Brazil | 0 pp | +6.4 pp | 0% |
| India | +2.6 pp | −3 pp | 2.9% |
| Hong Kong | −0.1 pp | −4.9 pp | 0.03% |
| Korea | +1.3 pp | −3.7 pp | 10% |
| Spain | −0.1 pp | +4.7 pp | 0.02% |
| Germany | −1.8 pp | +2.8 pp | 0.86% |
| Cambodia | +4.1 pp | +0.2 pp | 4.1% |
| Netherlands | −0.1 pp | +4.1 pp | 0.03% |
| Türkiye | +0.7 pp | −1.7 pp | 0.86% |
| Australia | 0 pp | +2.3 pp | 0.05% |
| Poland | −0.1 pp | +1.9 pp | 0.01% |
| UK | −0.2 pp | −1.6 pp | 0.27% |
| Portugal | 0 pp | +1.6 pp | 0% |
| Greece | 0 pp | +1.2 pp | 0% |
| Canada | −0.3 pp | −0.8 pp | 0.9% |
| Philippines | −1 pp | −0.1 pp | 0.74% |
| UAE | 0 pp | +1 pp | 0% |
| Italy | +0.6 pp | +0.4 pp | 1.9% |
| Malaysia | +0.9 pp | −0.1 pp | 23.5% |
| France | −0.1 pp | +0.8 pp | 0.27% |
| Saudi Arabia | 0 pp | +0.9 pp | 0% |
| Ukraine | 0 pp | +0.9 pp | 0% |
| Israel | +0.2 pp | +0.4 pp | 0.42% |
| Austria | 0 pp | +0.6 pp | 0.01% |
| Indonesia | +0.5 pp | +0.1 pp | 0.52% |
| Singapore | −0.2 pp | −0.3 pp | 2.6% |
| Colombia | 0 pp | +0.5 pp | 0% |
| Czechia | 0 pp | +0.4 pp | 0.01% |
| Belgium | 0 pp | +0.3 pp | 0.01% |
| Argentina | 0 pp | +0.3 pp | 0% |
| Honduras | 0 pp | −0.3 pp | 0% |
| Lebanon | 0 pp | +0.3 pp | 0% |
| Bulgaria | 0 pp | +0.3 pp | 0% |
| Hungary | 0 pp | +0.2 pp | 0.01% |
| Morocco | 0 pp | +0.2 pp | 0% |
| South Africa | 0 pp | +0.2 pp | 0% |
| Pakistan | 0 pp | −0.2 pp | 0% |
| Dominican Republic | −0.1 pp | +0.1 pp | 0.06% |
| Slovenia | 0 pp | +0.2 pp | 0% |
| Kazakhstan | 0 pp | +0.2 pp | 0% |
| Switzerland | −0.1 pp | −0.1 pp | 0.16% |
| Chile | 0 pp | −0.2 pp | 0% |
| Denmark | 0 pp | +0.1 pp | 0.05% |
| Russia | 0 pp | +0.1 pp | 0.02% |
| Ireland | 0 pp | +0.1 pp | 0.03% |
| Croatia | 0 pp | −0.1 pp | 0.01% |
| Jordan | +0.1 pp | +0.1 pp | 0.06% |
| Mali | 0 pp | +0.1 pp | 0% |
| Armenia | 0 pp | +0.1 pp | 0.03% |
| Qatar | 0 pp | +0.1 pp | 0% |
| Uruguay | 0 pp | −0.1 pp | 0% |
| Estonia | 0 pp | +0.1 pp | 0% |
| Sweden | 0 pp | +0.1 pp | 0.02% |
| Lithuania | 0 pp | +0.1 pp | 0.02% |
| Romania | 0 pp | +0.1 pp | 0% |
Largest gain in share of United States’ imports, 2013–2017 to 2018–2023: Malaysia, +9.4 pp (its share of China’s exports −2.2 pp).
→ Change in share of United States’ imports↑ Change in share of China’s exports
| Malaysia | +9.4 pp | −2.2 pp | 40.7% |
| Costa Rica | −8.4 pp | 0 pp | 0.91% |
| Singapore | −1.3 pp | −3.9 pp | 1.4% |
| Mexico | +2.9 pp | −1.8 pp | 4.2% |
| Taiwan | +2.2 pp | +2.1 pp | 14.5% |
| Korea | −1 pp | +2.1 pp | 6.5% |
| Vietnam | +0.8 pp | +2.3 pp | 5.8% |
| India | 0 pp | +2.6 pp | 0.02% |
| Japan | −2 pp | −0.5 pp | 2.7% |
| Philippines | −0.9 pp | +1 pp | 3.6% |
| Canada | −1.4 pp | −0.1 pp | 1.6% |
| Thailand | +1 pp | −0.1 pp | 3.5% |
| Hong Kong | 0 pp | +0.8 pp | 0.07% |
| France | −0.3 pp | −0.4 pp | 0.49% |
| Ireland | +0.5 pp | 0 pp | 3.6% |
| Brazil | 0 pp | −0.4 pp | 0.01% |
| Austria | −0.3 pp | 0 pp | 0.14% |
| Netherlands | 0 pp | +0.4 pp | 0.03% |
| Germany | +0.2 pp | −0.1 pp | 1.1% |
| Italy | −0.2 pp | 0 pp | 0.05% |
| Israel | +0.2 pp | 0 pp | 1.9% |
| Argentina | 0 pp | −0.2 pp | 0% |
| Czechia | 0 pp | +0.2 pp | 0.01% |
| Indonesia | −0.1 pp | 0 pp | 0.09% |
| Poland | 0 pp | +0.1 pp | 0.01% |
| Morocco | −0.1 pp | 0 pp | 0.11% |
| Slovakia | 0 pp | 0 pp | 0.02% |
| Hungary | 0 pp | 0 pp | 0.05% |
| Peru | 0 pp | 0 pp | 0% |
| Portugal | 0 pp | 0 pp | 0.04% |
| Belgium | 0 pp | 0 pp | 0.04% |
| Finland | 0 pp | 0 pp | 0.01% |
| Algeria | 0 pp | 0 pp | 0% |
| UK | 0 pp | 0 pp | 0.19% |
| Bangladesh | 0 pp | 0 pp | 0% |
| Türkiye | 0 pp | 0 pp | 0.04% |
| Malta | 0 pp | 0 pp | 0.27% |
| UAE | 0 pp | 0 pp | 0% |
| Spain | 0 pp | 0 pp | 0.02% |
| Nigeria | 0 pp | 0 pp | 0% |
| Denmark | 0 pp | 0 pp | 0.01% |
| North Macedonia | 0 pp | 0 pp | 0% |
| Venezuela | 0 pp | 0 pp | 0% |
| Australia | 0 pp | 0 pp | 0.03% |
| Myanmar | 0 pp | 0 pp | 0% |
| Kuwait | 0 pp | 0 pp | 0% |
| Romania | 0 pp | 0 pp | 0.01% |
| Switzerland | 0 pp | 0 pp | 0.09% |
| Serbia | 0 pp | 0 pp | 0% |
| Uzbekistan | 0 pp | 0 pp | 0% |
| Kenya | 0 pp | 0 pp | 0.01% |
| Macao | 0 pp | 0 pp | 0% |
| Norway | 0 pp | 0 pp | 0.01% |
| Greece | 0 pp | 0 pp | 0% |
| Colombia | 0 pp | 0 pp | 0% |
| Slovenia | 0 pp | 0 pp | 0% |
| Mauritius | 0 pp | 0 pp | 0.01% |
| Egypt | 0 pp | 0 pp | 0% |
| Russia | 0 pp | 0 pp | 0% |
| Cambodia | 0 pp | 0 pp | 0% |
Largest gain in share of United States’ imports, 2022 to 2024: Korea, +27.2 pp (its share of China’s exports −7.7 pp).
→ Change in share of United States’ imports↑ Change in share of China’s exports
| India | +2.1 pp | +40.4 pp | 2.1% |
| Korea | +27.2 pp | −7.7 pp | 30.7% |
| Malaysia | −29.9 pp | +0.2 pp | 31.9% |
| Thailand | +14.7 pp | −13.6 pp | 17.8% |
| Vietnam | −16.1 pp | −5.5 pp | 5.9% |
| Germany | +0.5 pp | −6.8 pp | 1.6% |
| Türkiye | 0 pp | −6.9 pp | 0.02% |
| Laos | +5.3 pp | +0.8 pp | 5.3% |
| Taiwan | −2.7 pp | 0 pp | 1.4% |
| Singapore | +0.2 pp | −2.2 pp | 0.16% |
| Cambodia | +0.3 pp | −1.6 pp | 1.5% |
| Russia | −0.1 pp | +1.5 pp | 0% |
| France | 0 pp | −1.5 pp | 0% |
| Canada | −0.3 pp | −1.2 pp | 0.01% |
| Slovenia | 0 pp | −0.8 pp | 0% |
| Indonesia | −0.2 pp | +0.6 pp | 1.4% |
| Spain | 0 pp | −0.6 pp | 0% |
| Jordan | 0 pp | −0.4 pp | 0% |
| Australia | −0.4 pp | 0 pp | 0% |
| Mexico | −0.2 pp | +0.1 pp | 0.01% |
| Italy | −0.1 pp | +0.2 pp | 0% |
| Netherlands | 0 pp | −0.2 pp | 0% |
| Japan | 0 pp | −0.1 pp | 0.3% |
| UK | 0 pp | −0.1 pp | 0.01% |
| Hong Kong | 0 pp | −0.1 pp | 0% |
| Mauritius | +0.1 pp | 0 pp | 0.05% |
| Philippines | 0 pp | 0 pp | 0.06% |
| Switzerland | 0 pp | +0.1 pp | 0% |
| Belgium | 0 pp | −0.1 pp | 0% |
| Bangladesh | 0 pp | 0 pp | 0.01% |
| Finland | 0 pp | 0 pp | 0% |
| Hungary | 0 pp | 0 pp | 0% |
| Czechia | 0 pp | 0 pp | 0% |
| Bulgaria | 0 pp | 0 pp | 0.01% |
| Norway | 0 pp | 0 pp | 0% |
| Denmark | 0 pp | 0 pp | 0% |
| Dominican Republic | 0 pp | 0 pp | 0% |
| Sweden | 0 pp | 0 pp | 0% |
| Slovakia | 0 pp | 0 pp | 0% |
China’s share of Vietnam’s all goods imports: 28.2% in 2013, 42.1% in 2024.
| 2013 | 28.2% | – | +15.5% | yes |
| 2014 | 29.8% | +1.6 pp | +12% | yes |
| 2015 | 30.2% | +0.4 pp | +11.9% | yes |
| 2016 | 28.8% | −1.3 pp | +5.9% | yes |
| 2017 | 27.7% | −1.1 pp | +21.7% | yes |
| 2018 | 28% | +0.3 pp | +10.7% | yes |
| 2019 | 30.2% | +2.2 pp | +7% | yes |
| 2020 | 32.5% | +2.2 pp | +3.7% | yes |
| 2021 | 33.6% | +1.2 pp | +25.9% | yes |
| 2022 | 33.3% | −0.3 pp | +8.1% | yes |
| 2023 | 34.8% | +1.4 pp | −9.8% | yes |
| 2024 | 42.1% | +7.4 pp | +20.6% | no |
China’s share of Mexico’s all goods imports: 16.1% in 2013, 20.5% in 2024.
| 2013 | 16.1% | – | +2.8% | yes |
| 2014 | 16.6% | +0.5 pp | +4.5% | yes |
| 2015 | 17.7% | +1.1 pp | −1% | yes |
| 2016 | 18% | +0.3 pp | −2.1% | yes |
| 2017 | 17.7% | −0.3 pp | +8.6% | yes |
| 2018 | 18% | +0.3 pp | +10.5% | yes |
| 2019 | 18.3% | +0.3 pp | −2% | yes |
| 2020 | 19.2% | +0.9 pp | −15.8% | yes |
| 2021 | 20.1% | +0.9 pp | +31.5% | yes |
| 2022 | 19.7% | −0.4 pp | +19.8% | yes |
| 2023 | 19.1% | −0.6 pp | −0.1% | yes |
| 2024 | 20.5% | +1.4 pp | +5.2% | yes |
Put a tariff on China in one stage (solar modules by default; cells or chips), entered as the share of China's flow it removes, and see which connectors fill the US gap and how much of that stage and the one above they buy from China
| Supplier | Share now | Share after | Change, pp | Its own imports from the partner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malaysia | 24.1% | 26.5% | +2.4 pp | 23% |
| China | 16.7% | 8.4% | −8.4 pp | |
| Korea | 14.6% | 16.1% | +1.5 pp | 44.6% |
| Vietnam | 10.3% | 11.3% | +1 pp | 19% |
| Japan | 8.4% | 9.2% | +0.8 pp | 56.7% |
| Thailand | 6.6% | 7.2% | +0.7 pp | 22.3% |
| Smaller suppliers | 4.5% | 4.9% | +0.4 pp | |
| Mexico | 4.5% | 4.9% | +0.4 pp | 19.2% |
| Italy | 3% | 3.3% | +0.3 pp | 19% |
| Singapore | 2.4% | 2.6% | +0.2 pp | 21.1% |
| Canada | 2.2% | 2.4% | +0.2 pp | 31.6% |
| Taiwan | 1.6% | 1.8% | +0.2 pp | 47.7% |
| Germany | 1.2% | 1.3% | +0.1 pp | 19.1% |
The largest other exporters, by share of world exports
First-round arithmetic on trade shares, not a forecast: an importer’s exposure is its import share from the shocked suppliers × the cut. No stocks, no new suppliers, no price changes.
The China → connector → US paths read the connectors' imports from China of the same stage and the stage above (cells from 2022, wafers before).
Gross trade cannot tell reallocation from rerouting: a Vietnamese export to the US can carry Chinese inputs, which Schulze and Xin separate with value-added data and a synthetic control, and the BIS bulletin with firm-level supplier links. Gopinath et al. estimate a gravity model with fixed effects and Qiu, Xia and Yetman use volumes; our shares are descriptive, in current dollars, and use the narrow blocs only (the papers' blocs from UN votes are not in the data).
datasteg: the flow sites
money-flow
Where money is made and where it goes: central bank and bank money, and cross-border positions by country pair.
Open money-flowtrade-flowYou are here
The world trade network and ten product chains from ore to product, with the events that moved them.
global-network
Funding and trade together: how economies earn, who funds whom against who trades with whom, and what past shocks did to both.
Open global-network