Case 2 · Event A2
After the earthquake, did buyers of Japanese car parts and electronics bring production home, move it nearby, or switch suppliers?
The 2011 shock “did not lead to reshoring, nearshoring, or diversification”. “Imports did shift to new suppliers, especially where dependence on Japan was greater. But production relocated to developing countries rather than to other top exporters.”
Quote checked against the paperRead the paper
Natural disasters revealed choke points in the trade network, such as “hard drive components and Thailand flooding, Japanese auto components post-Fukushima”.
Quote checked against the paperRead the paper
The papers’ questions measured again on UN Comtrade records. Each reading below is written from these numbers, not from the papers.
Germany held 17.5% of world car parts exports in 2010 and 17.6% in 2014; the largest gain among the top ten: Czechia, +3.6 pp.
| 2010 | 1 | Germany | 17.5% |
| 2010 | 2 | Japan | 13.3% |
| 2010 | 3 | United States | 10% |
| 2010 | 4 | France | 6.9% |
| 2010 | 5 | China | 5.3% |
| 2010 | 6 | Mexico | 5% |
| 2010 | 7 | Korea | 4.4% |
| 2010 | 8 | Italy | 3.8% |
| 2010 | 9 | Canada | 3.2% |
| 2010 | 10 | Spain | 3.2% |
| 2011 | 1 | Germany | 17.8% |
| 2011 | 2 | Japan | 12.6% |
| 2011 | 3 | United States | 9.7% |
| 2011 | 4 | France | 6.8% |
| 2011 | 5 | China | 5.7% |
| 2011 | 6 | Mexico | 5% |
| 2011 | 7 | Korea | 4.6% |
| 2011 | 8 | Italy | 4% |
| 2011 | 9 | Czechia | 3.1% |
| 2011 | 10 | Spain | 3% |
| 2012 | 1 | Germany | 16.8% |
| 2012 | 2 | Japan | 13.2% |
| 2012 | 3 | United States | 10.5% |
| 2012 | 4 | China | 6.3% |
| 2012 | 5 | France | 5.9% |
| 2012 | 6 | Mexico | 5.7% |
| 2012 | 7 | Korea | 5.2% |
| 2012 | 8 | Italy | 3.7% |
| 2012 | 9 | Canada | 3.1% |
| 2012 | 10 | Czechia | 2.9% |
| 2014 | 1 | Germany | 17.6% |
| 2014 | 2 | United States | 10.2% |
| 2014 | 3 | Japan | 9.7% |
| 2014 | 4 | China | 7.2% |
| 2014 | 5 | Mexico | 6.3% |
| 2014 | 6 | France | 6% |
| 2014 | 7 | Korea | 5.3% |
| 2014 | 8 | Italy | 3.9% |
| 2014 | 9 | Czechia | 3.6% |
| 2014 | 10 | Poland | 3.2% |
Taiwan held 16.9% of world semiconductors exports in 2010 and 23.2% in 2014; the largest gain among the top ten: Taiwan, +6.3 pp.
| 2010 | 1 | Taiwan | 16.9% |
| 2010 | 2 | Korea | 12.9% |
| 2010 | 3 | China | 11.8% |
| 2010 | 4 | Malaysia | 10.2% |
| 2010 | 5 | Japan | 10.1% |
| 2010 | 6 | United States | 8.4% |
| 2010 | 7 | Singapore | 7.5% |
| 2010 | 8 | Philippines | 5% |
| 2010 | 9 | Germany | 3.4% |
| 2010 | 10 | Thailand | 2.6% |
| 2011 | 1 | Taiwan | 17.5% |
| 2011 | 2 | Korea | 12.9% |
| 2011 | 3 | China | 12.2% |
| 2011 | 4 | Malaysia | 11% |
| 2011 | 5 | Japan | 9.5% |
| 2011 | 6 | Singapore | 7.6% |
| 2011 | 7 | United States | 7.4% |
| 2011 | 8 | Philippines | 4% |
| 2011 | 9 | Germany | 3.5% |
| 2011 | 10 | Costa Rica | 2.6% |
| 2012 | 1 | Taiwan | 20% |
| 2012 | 2 | Korea | 13.6% |
| 2012 | 3 | China | 11.3% |
| 2012 | 4 | Malaysia | 10.3% |
| 2012 | 5 | Japan | 9% |
| 2012 | 6 | United States | 7.5% |
| 2012 | 7 | Singapore | 7.4% |
| 2012 | 8 | Philippines | 3.8% |
| 2012 | 9 | Costa Rica | 3.3% |
| 2012 | 10 | Germany | 3.1% |
| 2014 | 1 | Taiwan | 23.2% |
| 2014 | 2 | Korea | 13.8% |
| 2014 | 3 | China | 12.9% |
| 2014 | 4 | Malaysia | 10.2% |
| 2014 | 5 | Singapore | 7.2% |
| 2014 | 6 | Japan | 7.2% |
| 2014 | 7 | United States | 7.1% |
| 2014 | 8 | Philippines | 3.4% |
| 2014 | 9 | Germany | 3% |
| 2014 | 10 | Costa Rica | 2.6% |
Japan’s share of car parts imports, 2010 → 2012: United States 17.3% → 18.1%, China 43.2% → 35%, Thailand 65.3% → 63.3% and Korea 34.3% → 23.5%.
| United States | Japan | 17.3% | 18.1% | +0.9 pp |
| China | Japan | 43.2% | 35% | −8.2 pp |
| Thailand | Japan | 65.3% | 63.3% | −2 pp |
| Korea | Japan | 34.3% | 23.5% | −10.8 pp |
Japan’s share of United States’ car parts imports: 18% in 2009, 13.4% in 2014.
| 2009 | 18% | 26.1% | 17.8% | 11.1% | 7.6% | 4.7% | 14.7% | – | −28.6% | yes |
| 2010 | 17.3% | 27.3% | 17.8% | 11.3% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 13.1% | −0.8 pp | +45.1% | yes |
| 2011 | 16.6% | 27.5% | 16.6% | 11.8% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 13.1% | −0.7 pp | +15.8% | yes |
| 2012 | 18.1% | 27.9% | 15.6% | 11.7% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 12% | +1.6 pp | +15.7% | yes |
| 2013 | 15.4% | 29.3% | 15.8% | 12.6% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 11% | −2.7 pp | +1.2% | yes |
| 2014 | 13.4% | 30.1% | 15.3% | 13.8% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 11.6% | −2 pp | +8.3% | yes |
Remove Japan from car parts (or chips) and rank who fills the gap in the first round, then compare with the shares that actually moved in 2011–2012
| Importer | At risk, share of its imports | Its other suppliers would ship |
|---|---|---|
| 68.8% | +221% | |
| 58.4% | +140% | |
| 41.6% | +71% | |
| 36.4% | +57% | |
| 34.1% | +52% | |
| 28.1% | +39% | |
| 24.5% | +32% | |
| 22.8% | +30% | |
| 21.8% | +28% | |
| 20.1% | +25% | |
| 19.8% | +25% | |
| 18.8% | +23% |
Who could fill the gap: Thailand, 68.8% of its imports
The suppliers it already buys from, in proportion to their shares: each would have to ship 221% more. Share now, then the part of the gap it would take:
The largest other exporters, by share of world exports
Passenger cars
Upper bound (100% pass-through, no use share). This stage feeds only this chain, so the chain file gives it no use share and the whole shortfall passes down.
7% of world passenger cars exports at risk in the first round, summed over the 23 large exporters with an exposure upstream. The 8 listed below carry 5.9%.
| Exporter | Its exposure upstream | World exports at risk |
|---|---|---|
| Korea | 34.1% | 1.9% |
| United States | 16.1% | 1% |
| Thailand | 68.8% | 0.68% |
| UK | 12.5% | 0.56% |
| Canada | 7.9% | 0.55% |
| Germany | 2.1% | 0.49% |
| Mexico | 9.8% | 0.43% |
| France | 5.3% | 0.23% |
An exporter of the next stage loses its share of world exports × its own exposure upstream (× the use share). Exporters on a closed route lose their own exports × the cut. Exposure upstream is the share of its imported car parts and engines that came from the closed supplier, not of all the car parts and engines it uses: where most are made at home (Japan, Korea, Germany for car parts), it overstates the risk.
First-round arithmetic on trade shares, not a forecast: an importer’s exposure is its import share from the shocked suppliers × the cut. No stocks, no new suppliers, no price changes.
Trade shows where imports came from, not where production moved: Freund et al. test reshoring, nearshoring and diversification with detailed product data, and Boehm, Flaaen and Pandalai-Nayar (further reading) need firm-level data on US affiliates of Japanese firms to measure how hard inputs are to replace. Annual totals blur a shock that lasted months, and the scenario fills the gap only from suppliers the importer already uses, so it cannot see the new suppliers the paper finds.
datasteg: the flow sites
money-flow
Where money is made and where it goes: central bank and bank money, and cross-border positions by country pair.
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The world trade network and ten product chains from ore to product, with the events that moved them.
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Funding and trade together: how economies earn, who funds whom against who trades with whom, and what past shocks did to both.
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