Event 5 · Shipping
Ever Given blocks Suez as a chip shortage hits carmakers
The container ship Ever Given ran aground across the Suez Canal on 23 March 2021 and was refloated on 29 March. A shortage of chips held back US vehicle production through 2021; buyers' median chip inventories fell from 40 days in 2019 to less than five in 2021, the US Commerce Department found.
- 23 Mar 2021 – 29 Mar 2021dates
- 3economies named
- 3products watched
- 14sources
Before and after
Passenger cars, Sep 2021 against Sep 2020, lens M (3-month sum against a year earlier). Economies are coloured by the change in their trade; the economies the event names have a dashed ring.
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What to watch World car trade falling while chip trade rose in 2021: the chain's mismatch, and which suppliers filled the gaps.
Measured, not asserted
Changes on a year earlier and in partner shares between Sep 2020 and Sep 2021. They say what moved in the window, not why it moved.
World trade in passenger cars: change on a year earlier
World trade in passenger cars, lens M (3-month sum against a year earlier): −11.1% in Sep 2020 (the base), −2.7% in Sep 2021. Lowest since the base: −16.4% in Nov 2021.
Source: UN Comtrade monthly data, all reporters that filed; mirror rule; lens M (3-month sum against a year earlier).
The named economies’ passenger cars trade, Sep 2021 against a year earlier
Largest fall: Egypt exports −24.2%; largest rise: Egypt imports +22.2%.
| Share of | Filed | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Passenger cars | Egypt | imports | +22.2% | yes |
| Passenger cars | Egypt | exports | −24.2% | yes |
| Passenger cars | Japan | imports | −3.6% | yes |
| Passenger cars | Japan | exports | +8.9% | yes |
| Passenger cars | United States | imports | −11.8% | yes |
| Passenger cars | United States | exports | +19.8% | yes |
| Integrated circuits | Egypt | imports | +887% | yes |
| Integrated circuits | Egypt | exports | +11.2% | yes |
| Integrated circuits | Japan | imports | +49.4% | yes |
| Integrated circuits | Japan | exports | +18.1% | yes |
| Integrated circuits | United States | imports | +42.2% | yes |
| Integrated circuits | United States | exports | +17.8% | yes |
| Car parts | Egypt | imports | +0.2% | yes |
| Car parts | Egypt | exports | +47.4% | yes |
| Car parts | Japan | imports | +35.1% | yes |
| Car parts | Japan | exports | +37.8% | yes |
| Car parts | United States | imports | +13.1% | yes |
| Car parts | United States | exports | −8% | yes |
Diversion: partner shares, Sep 2020 to Sep 2021
Largest move: Egypt → Libya, −42.1 pp (52% → 9.9%).
| Share of | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Germany → Egypt | imports | 20.3% | 17.9% | −2.4 pp |
| Czechia → Egypt | imports | 10.3% | 12.3% | +1.9 pp |
| Türkiye → Egypt | imports | 15.1% | 9.1% | −6 pp |
| China → Egypt | imports | 6.8% | 13.8% | +6.9 pp |
| Korea → Egypt | imports | 5.5% | 10% | +4.6 pp |
| Egypt → Libya | exports | 52% | 9.9% | −42.1 pp |
| Egypt → Spain | exports | 0% | 0.32% | +0.3 pp |
| Egypt → Dominican Republic | exports | 30.8% | 43.1% | +12.3 pp |
| Egypt → Sudan | exports | 0.52% | 16.8% | +16.3 pp |
| Egypt → UAE | exports | 0% | 0% | 0 pp |
| Germany → Japan | imports | 30.4% | 28.7% | −1.7 pp |
| United States → Japan | imports | 8.5% | 11.9% | +3.3 pp |
| UK → Japan | imports | 8.1% | 6.9% | −1.1 pp |
| Italy → Japan | imports | 9.7% | 9.1% | −0.7 pp |
| Thailand → Japan | imports | 8.8% | 8.6% | −0.2 pp |
| Japan → United States | exports | 38.9% | 38% | −0.9 pp |
| Japan → China | exports | 11.9% | 8.1% | −3.8 pp |
| Japan → Australia | exports | 7% | 7.2% | +0.3 pp |
| Japan → Belgium | exports | 5.4% | 4.1% | −1.3 pp |
| Japan → Saudi Arabia | exports | 1.6% | 3.5% | +1.8 pp |
| Japan → United States | imports | 21.3% | 25.7% | +4.4 pp |
| Mexico → United States | imports | 21.9% | 19.1% | −2.8 pp |
| Canada → United States | imports | 23.3% | 16.5% | −6.8 pp |
| Korea → United States | imports | 10.9% | 13.8% | +2.8 pp |
| Germany → United States | imports | 7.4% | 8.6% | +1.2 pp |
| United States → Canada | exports | 25.6% | 22.4% | −3.2 pp |
| United States → China | exports | 16.2% | 21.7% | +5.5 pp |
| United States → Germany | exports | 16.5% | 12.2% | −4.3 pp |
| United States → Korea | exports | 5.5% | 5.2% | −0.3 pp |
| United States → Mexico | exports | 3.2% | 4.3% | +1.1 pp |
Who gained and lost share of world passenger cars exports
Shares of world passenger cars exports, Sep 2020 to Sep 2021: gained most: China +2.2 pp; lost most: Canada −1.9 pp.
Source: UN Comtrade monthly data, all reporters that filed; mirror rule; lens M (3-month sum against a year earlier).
Who gained and lost share of world integrated circuits exports
Shares of world integrated circuits exports, Sep 2020 to Sep 2021: gained most: China +1.7 pp; lost most: Vietnam −1.3 pp.
Source: UN Comtrade monthly data, all reporters that filed; mirror rule; lens M (3-month sum against a year earlier).
Who gained and lost share of world car parts exports
Shares of world car parts exports, Sep 2020 to Sep 2021: gained most: China +2.4 pp; lost most: United States −1.5 pp.
Source: UN Comtrade monthly data, all reporters that filed; mirror rule; lens M (3-month sum against a year earlier).
Reading the numbers
Documented context for the figures above that run against the event’s headline. The measurements stand as they are; each item cites its sources.
Jul–Sep 2021 starts three months after the canal reopened on 29 March 2021 and holds the chip shortage near its worst: in the series on this page world trade was −16.4% on a year earlier in November 2021 and Japan's exports −32.6%. The base, Jul–Sep 2020, was itself 11.1% below a year earlier.
- Business cycle
World passenger-car trade: −2.8% on a year earlier in Jul–Sep 2021 ($161.8bn → $157.3bn), after −11.1% in Jul–Sep 2020; −16.4% in Nov 2021, the lowest since the base. The window holds the chip shortage, not the canal: the 422-ship backlog cleared by 3 April 2021, and canal transits rose 10% in 2021 to 20,694. Statistics Canada: since early 2021 a shortage of semiconductor chips forced carmakers worldwide to slow or halt production, and the stoppages intensified in North America in September, when US output of motor vehicles and parts fell 7.2%. [6] [7] [8] [9]
- Share effect
United States imports −11.8% ($37.8bn → $33.3bn): Canada → United States −$3.3bn (−37.3%), Mexico → United States −$1.9bn (−23.0%); Japan's share of US imports 21.3% → 25.7%, Korea's 10.9% → 13.8%. The fall is North American assembly: Canada's motor-vehicle and parts exports were 40.2% below September 2020, passenger cars and light trucks down 25.8% from August on production stoppages, and Mexico exported 195,294 light vehicles that month, 24.2% fewer than a year earlier. Japan → United States rose only $502m (+6.2%): most of Japan's share gain is the shrinking denominator. [8] [10]
- Business cycle
Japan exports +8.9% ($20.7bn → $22.5bn) in Jul–Sep 2021, then −20.9% (Oct), −32.6% (Nov) and −28.8% (Dec 2021) on a year earlier. Jul–Sep 2020 was itself 25.5% below a year earlier, and the fall came at the window's end: Japan's car exports in September 2021 were 46.6% below September 2020 by value (258,857 units, −40.1%). Toyota cut its September plan by about 70,000 vehicles and October's by about 330,000 for a parts shortage caused by COVID-19 in Southeast Asia and tighter semiconductor supplies. [11] [12]
- Share effect
Egypt → Libya: 52.0% → 9.9% of Egypt's passenger-car exports (−42.1 pp), the largest bar, on exports of $1.6m → $1.2m; Egypt's imports +22.2% ($668m → $817m), China's share 6.8% → 13.8%. Egypt exports almost no passenger cars ($1.2m in Jul–Sep 2021), so the diversion list's three largest bars are shares of a tiny total that swings from month to month. Its imports grew with its market: AMIC counted almost 291,000 new vehicles sold in 2021 (+26%), passenger cars +28% to 215,000, and 42,392 Chinese cars sold in January–October 2021, up from 21,585. [13] [14]
Partner shares, economy by economy
Each named economy’s five largest partners over the window, in fixed colours, with the rest as Other. The table gives the change in percentage points between Sep 2020 and Sep 2021.
Not drawn, too small or erratic to read month by month: Egypt (integrated circuits exports).
Egypt: passenger cars imports by supplier
Germany: 20.3% in Sep 2020, 17.9% in Sep 2021 (−2.4 pp).
Source: UN Comtrade monthly data, all reporters that filed; mirror rule; lens M (3-month sum against a year earlier).
Egypt: passenger cars exports by destination
Libya: 52% in Sep 2020, 9.9% in Sep 2021 (−42.1 pp).
Source: UN Comtrade monthly data, all reporters that filed; mirror rule; lens M (3-month sum against a year earlier).
Japan: passenger cars imports by supplier
Germany: 30.4% in Sep 2020, 28.7% in Sep 2021 (−1.7 pp).
Source: UN Comtrade monthly data, all reporters that filed; mirror rule; lens M (3-month sum against a year earlier).
Japan: passenger cars exports by destination
United States: 38.9% in Sep 2020, 38% in Sep 2021 (−0.9 pp).
Source: UN Comtrade monthly data, all reporters that filed; mirror rule; lens M (3-month sum against a year earlier).
United States: passenger cars imports by supplier
Japan: 21.3% in Sep 2020, 25.7% in Sep 2021 (+4.4 pp).
Source: UN Comtrade monthly data, all reporters that filed; mirror rule; lens M (3-month sum against a year earlier).
United States: passenger cars exports by destination
Canada: 25.6% in Sep 2020, 22.4% in Sep 2021 (−3.2 pp).
Source: UN Comtrade monthly data, all reporters that filed; mirror rule; lens M (3-month sum against a year earlier).
Timeline
- Fire halts Renesas's 300mm chip line at Naka, Japan [3]
- Ever Given runs aground and blocks the Suez Canal [1]
- Ship refloated; canal traffic resumes [2]
- Suez Canal Authority: the queue of 422 ships has cleared [6]
- Cleveland Fed: chip shortage constrains US vehicle production [4]
- US Commerce: median chip inventory down from 40 days in 2019 to under 5 in 2021 [5]
What else changed
World exports of passenger cars changed −2.8% between Sep 2020 and Sep 2021.
Other events in the same window:
- Indonesia bans nickel-ore exports · 1 Jan 2020 – ongoing
- WHO declares COVID-19 a pandemic · 11 Mar 2020 – 5 May 2023
Values are in US dollars: prices and exchange rates move them as well as volumes, and this page does not separate them. None of the numbers here says why trade moved.
Documented context for the figures that run against the headline is in “Reading the numbers”, with sources.
Coverage
Who has filed
125 economies had filed Sep 2021, 99% of 2024 world exports. Every named economy filed the months shown.
Sources
- Egypt's Suez Canal blocked by huge container ship · BBC News · 24 Mar 2021
- Suez Canal says traffic in channel resumes after stranded ship refloated · Reuters (via CNBC Africa) · 29 Mar 2021
- Notice regarding the semiconductor manufacturing factory (Naka Factory) fire · Renesas Electronics · 19 Mar 2021
- Semiconductor shortages and vehicle production and prices (Economic Commentary 2021-17) · Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland · 8 Jul 2021
- Results from semiconductor supply chain request for information · US Department of Commerce · 25 Jan 2022
- Suez Canal shipping backlog cleared · Al Jazeera (Reuters reporting) · 3 Apr 2021
- Suez Canal Authority Reports Record $6.3B in Revenues in 2021 · The Maritime Executive · 3 Jan 2022
- Canadian international merchandise trade, September 2021 · Statistics Canada, The Daily · 4 Nov 2021
- Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization – G.17 (September 2021) · Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System · 18 Oct 2021
- Resultados del Registro Administrativo de la Industria Automotriz de Vehículos Ligeros correspondiente a septiembre de 2021 (Comunicado de prensa 562/21) · INEGI · 6 Oct 2021
- Changes to Production Plans for September and October 2021 · Toyota Motor Corporation · 10 Sep 2021
- Trade Statistics: Value of Exports and Imports, September 2021 (Fixed Annual) · Ministry of Finance, Japan (Customs and Tariff Bureau) · 11 Nov 2022
- Car sales up 26% in 2021 · Enterprise (EnterpriseAM Egypt), citing AMIC · 2 Feb 2022
- Rising sales of Chinese cars in Egypt reflect consumers' trust: experts · Xinhua (via People's Daily Online), citing AMIC · 16 Dec 2021