Russia invades Ukraine; oil and potash sanctions follow

Reading the numbers

Documented context for the figures above that run against the event’s headline. The measurements stand as they are; each item cites its sources.

Dec 2021–Feb 2022 is the last quarter before the invasion; Dec 2022–Feb 2023 is the first quarter of the EU seaborne crude ban and the G7 price cap (5 December 2022) and ends three weeks after the products ban. In the series on this page India's share of Russia's crude exports had reached 29.4% by December 2022 and held at 40–45% from March to August 2023.

1. Substitution

   Russia → India: 1.2% → 38.5% of Russia's crude exports, $421m → $10.4bn; Russia → China 34.2% → 46.8% (Dec 2021–Feb 2022 → Dec 2022–Feb 2023). The EU agreed its ban on seaborne Russian crude on 3 June 2022 with a six-month phase-out to 5 December. The IEA counted India and China taking over 70% of Russia's crude exports in February 2023, Russia supplying about 40% of India's and 20% of China's crude imports; China's customs put Russia ahead of Saudi Arabia in January–February 2023. [8] [9] [13]

2. How the data are reported

   Russia · crude exports −23.6% ($35.2bn → $26.9bn) and · crude imports −76.6%, both drawn grey. Russia's Federal Customs Service stopped publishing foreign trade statistics in April 2022. Russia's own monthly filings end in December 2021 in the series here, so every Russian figure in both windows is its partners' report; Russia → India is India's filing. Belarus, whose crude came from Russia in this series, stops filing after March 2022, so its crude charts are empty. [7]

3. Prices and exchange rates

   Russia · crude exports −23.6% in USD while world crude trade rose 7.2% ($318.6bn → $341.7bn). Russia's Finance Ministry put the average Urals export price at $49.48 a barrel in January 2023 against $85.64 a year earlier, and at $49.56 in February, while Brent averaged $83 in December 2022–February 2023 against $85 a year earlier. The IEA put Russia's February 2023 oil export revenues at $11.6bn, down 42% on a year earlier, on exports of 7.5 mb/d. [9] [10] [11] [15]

4. Substitution

   United States · crude exports +43.6% ($22.5bn → $32.2bn); United States → India 14.3% → 10.9% of US exports, United States → Netherlands 6.1% → 8.3%. The EIA records 2022 US crude exports at a record 3.6 million b/d, 22% above 2021: less went to India and China, which imported more discounted Russian crude, and the drop was more than offset by demand in Europe; South Korea and the Netherlands each took over 10% of US exports and the UK 9.6%. [14]

Timeline

1. 24 Feb 2022Russia invades Ukraine [1]
2. 2 Mar 2022EU Belarus sanctions of 2 March to 8 April cover all potash [2]
3. 8 Mar 2022US bans imports of Russian crude oil, petroleum products, LNG and coal [16]
4. 22 Jul 2022Black Sea Grain Initiative signed in Istanbul [3]
5. 2 Dec 2022G7 and Australia cap Russian crude at $60 a barrel [4]
6. 5 Dec 2022EU ban on seaborne Russian crude takes effect [5]
7. 5 Feb 2023EU ban on Russian oil products takes effect [5]
8. 17 Jul 2023Black Sea Grain Initiative expires [3]
9. 22 Oct 2026Strikes go on; Russia ready to resume talks in November [6]

What else changed

World exports of crude oil changed +7.2% between Feb 2022 and Feb 2023.

Values are in US dollars: prices and exchange rates move them as well as volumes, and this page does not separate them. None of the numbers here says why trade moved.

Documented context for the figures that run against the headline is in “Reading the numbers”, with sources.

Coverage

Sources

1. Sanctions adopted following Russia's military aggression against Ukraine · European Commission, DG FISMA · 12 Oct 2026
2. Russia's war on Ukraine: Sanctions targeting Belarus · European Parliamentary Research Service · 19 May 2022
3. Black Sea Grain Initiative · United Nations · no date; accessed 24 Oct 2026
4. Statement of the G7 and Australia on a Price Cap for Seaborne Russian-Origin Crude Oil · G7 (G7 Information Centre, University of Toronto) · 2 Dec 2022
5. Notice to operators: Imports of Russian crude oil or petroleum products into the Union (2022/C 296/05) · Official Journal of the European Union (copy hosted by Skadden) · 3 Aug 2022
6. Russia pounds Kyiv with missiles and drones, hours after agreeing to peace talks · Reuters (via NBC News) · 22 Oct 2026
7. Secret Economy: What Hiding the Stats Does for Russia · Carnegie Politika (Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center), Yulia Starostina · 1 Jul 2022
8. Russia's war on Ukraine: EU adopts sixth package of sanctions against Russia · European Commission, DG FISMA · 3 Jun 2022
9. Oil Market Report – March 2023 · International Energy Agency · 15 Mar 2023
10. Urals crude averages at $49.48/bbl in Jan, spread widens vs. Dec but growth slows by end-Jan – MinFin · Interfax · 1 Feb 2023
11. UPDATE 1-Russian Urals crude price at $47.85 in March, says finance ministry · Reuters (via Kitco News) · 3 Apr 2023
12. The Price Cap on Russian Oil: A Progress Report · US Department of the Treasury (E. Rosenberg, E. Van Nostrand) · 18 May 2023
13. Russia overtakes Saudi Arabia as China's top oil supplier · Reuters (via Al Jazeera) · 20 Mar 2023
14. In 2022, U.S. crude oil exports increased to a new record, 3.6 million barrels a day · US Energy Information Administration, Today in Energy · 30 Mar 2023
15. Global price of Brent Crude (POILBREUSDM, IMF Primary Commodity Prices) · FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis · no date; accessed 25 Oct 2026
16. Executive Order 14066 – Prohibiting Certain Imports and New Investments With Respect to Continued Russian Federation Efforts to Undermine the Sovereignty and Territorial Integrity of Ukraine · GovInfo, Daily Compilation of Presidential Documents (87 FR 13625) · 8 Mar 2022

Related case studies and chains

• Case 3 Trade is splitting into blocs, with connectors between
• Case 4 Europe could replace most of its Russian gas